***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 8.4 6.8 11.1 101.6 60.9 53.0 1.6 5.2 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.5 10.7 10.5 111.1 64.8 55.7 1.1 2.9 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.4 7.9 11.1 105.1 62.0 53.1 2.0 6.0 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.0 16.2 12.6 106.0 61.7 53.3 2.6 8.6 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.8 15.6 12.1 101.2 58.9 52.4 2.8 11.2 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.7 12.5 13.4 117.6 69.6 56.6 5.0 6.7 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.2 8.2 10.1 108.4 64.2 54.9 1.9 4.5 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 19.8 20.4 13.0 104.3 60.3 53.3 8.5 16.8 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.8 12.2 98.5 56.8 51.5 3.3 9.3 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 11.0 13.1 13.0 100.8 57.1 52.1 6.1 9.3 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.4 11.7 102.6 58.4 52.4 4.8 8.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.2 11.9 12.0 110.0 64.1 54.7 2.7 7.0 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 15.9 14.8 13.4 113.8 68.8 56.6 3.8 9.5 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.5 18.4 14.8 109.9 64.5 55.3 8.5 14.8 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.2 10.5 12.4 112.2 64.7 54.4 1.7 3.9 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.6 10.9 12.4 109.8 65.0 54.8 1.4 9.2 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.7 11.1 10.5 114.9 65.0 55.7 1.8 8.4 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.9 10.4 14.0 103.5 60.1 52.9 3.9 7.2 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.9 11.8 10.9 111.7 65.9 55.7 2.5 5.6 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.3 16.7 100.9 59.0 52.6 3.3 10.1 12.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.9 11.6 11.6 99.3 59.1 51.2 2.9 6.9 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.2 11.8 11.6 119.7 67.1 56.7 3.2 6.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.1 16.8 11.5 110.2 67.4 55.0 1.4 5.9 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.6 14.9 13.2 106.3 62.4 53.7 4.6 9.4 15.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.9 7.9 12.3 97.7 58.9 51.8 2.1 5.7 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 9.9 7.6 13.9 125.2 71.7 58.5 2.4 4.6 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.5 8.2 11.6 99.3 60.4 52.7 2.4 5.9 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.3 14.1 12.4 111.9 64.7 54.4 1.8 6.2 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.6 17.8 14.8 102.9 59.9 53.2 8.7 15.1 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.2 10.2 10.6 108.7 64.8 55.0 2.4 4.1 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------