***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-07.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 5.0 6.1 14.0 143.3 72.6 61.6 0.4 1.5 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 3.4 4.4 12.4 136.6 73.3 62.6 0.5 1.1 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 3.5 6.5 13.4 138.4 71.8 60.2 0.5 2.0 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 7.3 9.8 15.9 145.8 74.5 63.0 3.2 6.6 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.7 9.3 15.3 139.3 71.3 61.9 2.1 5.4 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 9.5 10.9 16.0 150.3 78.3 64.6 1.6 5.7 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 4.9 6.6 12.5 141.2 75.6 63.9 0.7 1.9 3.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 17.5 21.4 18.1 153.0 77.3 65.7 5.9 9.2 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 4.5 5.5 15.8 135.6 71.6 61.1 1.2 3.7 5.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 5.3 8.2 17.2 141.9 73.9 62.9 1.8 4.5 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 6.9 7.6 15.5 145.0 73.2 63.9 1.6 3.6 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 6.1 8.3 16.4 155.5 78.9 66.6 2.2 3.2 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 8.6 10.5 17.2 154.9 81.1 67.8 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 4.2 6.8 15.3 121.3 65.2 58.0 1.1 3.0 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 3.8 9.5 15.4 146.3 74.9 63.5 0.3 2.0 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 7.4 8.3 15.7 147.8 75.9 65.3 2.0 5.1 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 4.0 4.7 12.3 137.3 74.2 63.3 0.7 1.8 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 4.4 6.9 17.6 137.6 70.4 62.2 1.8 3.4 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 2.4 6.1 12.4 132.6 71.0 60.7 0.4 1.2 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 7.3 8.1 23.9 149.9 74.5 66.8 2.3 3.6 4.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 4.5 6.7 14.8 138.2 70.4 60.7 0.9 3.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 5.3 6.7 12.8 134.5 73.8 62.0 0.6 1.7 3.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 3.0 3.5 12.7 127.5 67.8 58.3 0.2 1.5 3.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 4.6 8.1 15.2 131.1 68.1 60.0 2.0 3.2 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.3 7.3 16.0 142.5 72.0 61.4 1.1 3.5 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 9.5 13.3 18.1 169.3 82.3 70.2 1.8 4.6 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 6.7 7.5 14.9 142.8 72.6 61.7 0.4 3.3 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 4.0 8.7 14.9 143.4 74.7 62.9 0.7 2.5 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 10.3 13.8 19.1 137.9 70.7 62.9 3.8 9.1 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 3.6 4.3 12.8 140.2 73.8 62.4 0.8 1.9 3.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------