***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-31.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 13.3 23.4 23.2 220.2 90.6 78.4 1.2 6.2 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 12.9 18.3 20.6 218.3 89.5 78.6 1.0 6.7 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 20.2 31.0 21.7 203.0 89.3 76.1 2.9 7.0 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 16.4 28.6 24.0 201.2 88.7 75.8 3.9 9.5 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 16.9 27.9 22.6 186.7 87.8 74.0 4.7 9.9 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 11.5 16.8 20.7 180.8 85.0 73.2 3.6 7.2 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 11.9 21.8 20.2 217.2 88.9 78.3 1.5 5.8 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 21.9 31.1 23.7 183.3 85.2 74.2 6.4 11.0 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 15.3 23.6 22.9 186.7 89.2 74.9 2.2 6.0 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 17.7 22.9 22.6 179.1 85.6 73.8 4.0 9.5 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 12.0 20.1 22.2 181.6 86.2 73.5 3.4 8.4 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 10.6 21.8 22.3 187.0 86.4 75.5 2.0 3.3 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 15.5 25.1 23.5 186.0 86.9 76.0 3.9 5.8 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 21.5 33.7 24.2 179.3 83.1 73.8 4.1 9.5 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 9.7 13.3 20.5 182.3 80.6 71.5 0.6 3.6 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 13.9 25.3 22.8 191.5 87.9 75.5 2.2 6.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 10.2 18.1 19.6 210.3 89.1 78.2 0.9 5.7 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 14.7 20.9 23.8 180.1 85.7 74.7 4.1 6.9 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 14.1 21.5 20.8 214.1 89.2 77.7 1.5 9.1 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 13.9 24.1 32.7 191.7 87.4 75.2 2.8 5.4 10.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 16.8 31.5 23.1 200.7 90.3 76.6 3.9 6.8 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 12.1 16.8 20.5 209.3 89.4 77.9 0.4 6.5 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 13.9 20.2 21.2 202.4 87.2 76.0 1.2 6.2 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 19.2 24.0 22.6 179.7 84.5 73.8 5.6 12.3 18.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 19.3 29.0 26.0 207.5 90.5 77.2 2.5 10.2 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 13.9 17.4 21.0 168.1 82.1 73.1 4.2 7.3 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 16.0 25.2 24.4 213.6 90.3 78.4 2.2 9.6 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 9.7 17.1 21.0 185.6 83.5 72.6 0.9 3.4 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 23.7 30.6 26.3 182.8 86.2 74.5 6.8 12.1 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 14.2 20.8 21.1 219.9 89.0 78.5 1.3 5.3 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------