***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2021.-24.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 5.4 4.9 11.0 88.0 53.8 51.9 2.9 4.7 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 5.4 6.8 11.2 104.3 62.9 57.8 1.2 4.2 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 7.7 6.0 9.6 79.6 52.1 47.2 3.8 5.8 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.6 8.6 9.0 58.9 40.8 38.3 5.4 10.1 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.4 5.3 10.0 69.7 44.7 41.6 1.7 5.5 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.6 3.9 7.6 57.0 37.1 34.7 3.0 5.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 5.1 6.6 11.8 112.7 67.0 61.0 2.0 4.2 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.4 7.8 10.1 65.3 40.0 38.0 5.6 12.5 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.6 4.3 9.3 68.9 44.8 40.6 2.6 5.3 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.9 4.7 9.3 62.5 38.3 36.3 3.5 7.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.3 4.8 9.0 63.6 39.9 37.8 3.9 7.3 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.1 3.3 8.5 62.5 39.8 37.2 1.9 8.8 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.7 6.5 8.2 57.1 37.2 34.1 4.7 7.3 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.6 9.7 11.5 80.3 50.8 45.9 7.8 9.7 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.8 6.8 6.9 49.1 39.6 36.5 4.9 8.6 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.7 3.5 9.0 63.7 41.4 38.4 2.8 6.0 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 4.8 7.5 12.7 125.7 70.9 63.7 1.2 4.1 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.8 6.5 10.6 70.4 43.5 40.8 5.2 7.3 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 7.4 8.7 10.5 94.7 59.5 54.1 3.0 6.2 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.8 8.4 13.9 76.0 49.4 44.8 4.7 8.7 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 8.9 6.3 9.9 74.7 47.1 44.1 3.3 7.3 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 5.8 6.7 12.2 112.5 65.7 59.2 1.7 4.8 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 7.5 7.6 10.1 87.2 55.4 50.7 2.7 6.2 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.0 8.2 10.0 73.3 47.6 42.3 4.0 8.5 14.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 7.7 5.2 11.8 82.0 49.0 48.0 3.3 5.7 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.2 1.5 8.5 63.7 37.9 37.3 1.3 3.0 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 5.2 5.0 11.7 89.8 53.9 52.3 3.0 4.3 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.4 4.5 7.0 49.4 37.2 34.3 3.8 5.2 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.9 12.1 11.5 73.2 46.7 42.7 8.9 12.5 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 5.6 6.4 10.6 95.6 60.1 55.2 1.5 3.9 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------