***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 5.1 6.0 6.1 1.4 65.0 64.7 1.9 4.4 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 4.3 5.9 6.2 1.4 65.3 64.0 2.4 3.5 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 5.6 6.9 6.7 1.5 65.6 64.9 3.1 4.8 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 0.4 1.5 3.2 1.2 63.4 62.1 -1.4 0.0 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 7.3 6.8 4.7 1.2 66.4 63.4 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 6.4 7.1 3.7 1.5 71.4 65.6 2.8 4.3 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 4.1 5.8 5.9 1.2 63.9 62.8 1.9 3.3 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -1.1 -0.8 3.8 0.9 63.7 60.9 -2.0 -1.6 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 7.9 7.5 5.3 1.0 63.1 61.5 3.6 5.5 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.9 6.6 4.5 1.0 63.4 61.4 3.7 5.0 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 7.9 7.1 5.0 1.3 67.9 64.5 3.3 4.8 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 7.6 7.1 4.5 1.2 66.9 63.6 3.6 5.3 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 7.6 7.7 4.7 1.6 71.4 67.5 3.5 4.9 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 8.0 8.2 6.6 1.9 71.9 68.6 4.2 5.9 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.8 4.2 1.0 61.1 60.5 3.1 5.1 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 8.1 7.6 4.5 1.4 69.5 65.2 3.8 5.1 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 4.0 5.4 5.9 1.3 64.5 63.2 2.5 3.4 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 6.1 6.6 4.5 1.2 66.8 63.2 2.4 4.0 6.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 6.3 6.0 6.5 1.5 66.5 65.0 2.8 3.7 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.6 2.6 2.3 0.7 61.9 58.8 0.8 1.8 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 7.6 7.1 6.1 1.3 65.8 63.9 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 6.5 6.8 6.3 1.5 68.3 65.4 2.7 4.3 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 6.8 6.0 6.9 1.7 68.8 66.8 2.6 4.6 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 8.0 8.1 6.1 1.5 68.3 65.9 3.8 5.6 7.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 6.1 5.5 4.9 1.4 64.2 64.7 2.3 4.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 7.1 5.9 3.8 1.1 66.0 63.9 3.5 5.1 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.7 5.6 1.4 64.7 64.8 2.6 4.5 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.1 7.1 3.7 1.1 63.5 61.5 3.5 5.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 4.1 3.2 3.9 1.2 66.9 63.2 1.0 1.9 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 4.4 5.7 6.2 1.4 65.2 64.2 2.1 3.6 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------