***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.6 6.8 6.0 0.5 55.4 53.0 3.6 5.4 8.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.1 5.8 0.3 53.0 51.6 3.7 5.2 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.0 6.5 0.5 56.0 52.8 3.9 5.6 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -2.2 1.0 3.8 0.7 55.8 54.5 -2.6 0.2 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.8 4.8 0.7 55.9 54.4 4.4 6.0 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.0 3.4 0.5 54.2 53.1 3.9 5.5 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.7 5.5 5.8 0.3 54.0 51.7 3.5 5.1 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -0.2 -0.1 4.0 0.5 56.2 53.0 -2.8 -0.5 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.1 5.5 0.6 55.9 53.9 3.7 6.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.4 4.6 0.5 55.9 53.3 3.8 6.9 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.8 4.8 0.6 55.4 53.9 3.7 6.3 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.3 4.6 0.5 55.9 53.3 3.5 6.4 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.7 3.8 0.5 56.5 52.9 4.9 6.2 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.5 5.7 0.5 55.5 53.3 4.2 6.6 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.2 6.4 4.3 0.5 51.8 53.5 3.3 6.2 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.8 7.7 4.3 0.6 56.3 53.7 5.3 6.7 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.7 5.7 0.2 51.2 51.6 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.1 6.8 4.6 0.5 55.8 53.2 3.4 6.2 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.6 6.1 0.4 53.6 51.8 3.7 5.2 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 3.6 3.8 2.4 0.4 54.3 52.2 0.4 3.1 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.1 6.0 0.6 56.9 53.8 4.0 5.6 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.0 5.9 0.3 52.2 52.0 4.4 5.8 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.2 6.5 0.4 54.1 52.2 4.3 5.6 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.3 7.1 5.6 0.5 56.7 53.3 3.8 6.9 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.2 4.6 0.6 54.5 53.8 3.8 5.3 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.4 6.8 3.8 0.4 54.1 52.8 5.0 6.5 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.9 6.4 5.4 0.5 54.1 53.2 3.6 5.7 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.8 6.8 4.0 0.6 54.1 53.9 4.7 6.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.3 2.6 3.8 0.5 55.5 53.1 0.1 2.4 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.4 6.5 5.9 0.4 54.0 52.0 3.8 5.3 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------