***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-07.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 8.3 10.1 7.1 2.2 70.1 65.3 1.4 3.9 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 8.8 8.3 6.9 2.0 67.2 64.0 1.9 4.9 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 10.1 10.0 7.6 2.1 69.3 64.5 3.0 5.7 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 2.2 2.9 4.5 2.0 69.3 64.5 -2.5 -0.4 2.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 8.8 9.9 5.8 2.2 72.3 64.9 2.6 5.1 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 7.6 7.1 4.8 2.4 70.1 65.5 1.8 4.6 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 8.4 8.2 6.8 1.9 67.7 63.8 1.7 4.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 0.7 0.9 4.9 1.8 65.6 62.4 -3.0 -1.3 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 10.1 10.3 6.5 2.1 71.5 64.2 3.2 6.1 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 9.9 8.8 5.7 2.0 68.0 63.1 3.7 6.4 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 9.5 9.5 5.9 2.2 71.1 64.8 2.8 5.4 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 9.3 8.6 5.5 2.0 67.8 63.8 3.7 5.9 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 8.8 9.2 5.0 2.2 69.2 65.2 3.0 5.3 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 11.1 11.0 7.0 2.2 69.8 64.2 4.4 6.8 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 8.0 7.5 5.0 1.8 64.5 63.5 4.2 6.0 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 9.1 9.7 5.4 2.3 71.9 65.2 3.5 5.6 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 8.0 7.7 6.7 1.8 65.0 62.7 2.4 5.0 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 7.4 7.6 5.6 1.9 66.1 62.7 3.6 5.2 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 9.2 9.6 7.3 2.0 67.8 64.3 2.5 5.0 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 4.5 3.1 3.1 1.3 59.5 59.9 0.4 1.9 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 9.7 10.4 7.0 2.1 71.2 64.3 3.1 5.9 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 8.9 9.3 7.0 1.9 66.0 63.1 2.8 5.8 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 9.2 9.4 7.7 2.1 68.3 64.3 3.0 5.3 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 10.6 10.2 6.8 2.1 68.7 63.7 3.9 6.6 9.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 7.6 8.3 5.6 2.1 71.6 65.1 2.0 4.3 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 7.4 7.2 4.7 1.9 65.3 64.8 3.3 4.4 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 8.3 9.3 6.5 2.1 70.7 65.3 2.2 4.6 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 9.1 9.1 4.8 2.0 68.1 64.2 5.5 7.0 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 5.7 5.1 4.9 1.8 64.2 62.2 0.7 2.4 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 8.5 8.8 7.0 2.0 68.5 64.6 1.8 4.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------