***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-31.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 4.7 5.8 6.3 2.1 71.4 65.3 1.0 1.7 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 5.4 5.4 6.1 1.7 67.9 62.6 0.9 2.4 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 6.3 6.8 7.0 2.3 72.3 65.9 1.5 4.5 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -0.5 0.4 3.2 1.8 65.9 62.6 -2.5 -1.1 0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 6.3 6.4 5.1 2.2 69.8 65.8 2.3 4.5 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 5.8 5.8 4.1 2.3 69.7 67.2 2.0 4.0 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 5.1 4.9 5.8 1.6 66.7 61.9 0.2 2.0 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -1.4 -1.1 4.0 1.6 62.1 62.7 -3.2 -2.1 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 6.7 6.3 5.9 2.0 68.6 64.6 2.0 5.2 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.5 4.8 1.8 63.7 63.2 1.7 4.4 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 6.5 7.0 5.7 2.4 71.2 67.3 2.1 4.4 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 6.9 6.5 4.9 2.1 67.8 65.8 1.7 4.4 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 6.6 7.1 5.3 2.5 71.1 67.9 1.9 4.6 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 7.4 7.3 6.7 2.4 70.1 66.4 1.7 4.6 6.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 5.5 5.1 4.8 1.9 66.7 63.3 2.3 3.8 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 7.0 7.4 4.9 2.3 70.7 66.5 2.7 4.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 4.7 4.9 5.6 1.4 63.9 60.8 0.5 1.9 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 5.2 4.4 4.8 2.0 64.5 64.4 1.9 3.2 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 5.6 5.4 6.5 1.9 69.2 63.8 0.4 2.3 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.3 2.1 2.5 1.3 57.7 60.7 0.2 1.6 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 6.3 6.8 6.7 2.2 71.8 65.7 2.8 4.6 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 5.7 5.2 6.0 1.6 65.0 62.2 1.3 2.8 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 6.1 5.7 6.9 2.2 71.1 65.5 0.7 2.7 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 7.0 6.6 6.5 2.3 69.6 66.0 2.2 4.9 6.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 5.1 6.0 5.1 2.0 69.2 64.7 1.7 2.6 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 6.0 5.5 4.0 1.9 63.4 65.4 2.8 4.5 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 5.2 6.1 5.7 1.9 68.1 64.2 1.4 2.6 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.1 5.3 4.1 1.9 65.9 63.4 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 2.8 1.9 4.0 1.8 63.2 63.7 -0.5 1.0 2.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 5.0 5.7 6.2 1.9 69.6 63.6 0.7 1.9 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------