***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2021.-24.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 3.2 4.8 5.1 0.9 61.2 58.5 1.2 2.8 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 48 52 100 3.9 4.9 5.9 1.6 65.1 63.4 0.9 1.5 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 3.9 4.5 5.6 0.9 59.3 57.8 2.1 3.4 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 -0.8 -1.1 1.4 0.1 50.7 50.0 -3.0 -1.4 1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 3.8 3.1 2.8 -0.3 49.3 47.4 2.6 3.2 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 4.0 4.3 2.6 0.7 56.3 55.9 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 2.1 3.3 5.4 1.2 62.7 60.7 0.6 1.3 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 -0.2 -1.4 2.3 -0.3 44.0 44.8 -2.1 -0.5 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.1 3.2 3.3 -0.7 42.6 42.4 2.7 4.4 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 4.1 3.5 2.8 -0.3 44.3 45.0 2.2 3.7 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 4.1 4.1 3.7 0.1 52.3 50.5 3.0 3.7 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 5.1 4.8 3.1 0.2 50.2 49.7 3.0 4.8 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 4.6 5.0 4.8 1.3 62.8 62.0 2.9 4.4 5.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 6.4 6.2 6.8 2.3 71.1 70.0 2.6 3.3 5.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 3.7 2.0 2.8 -0.1 44.2 47.8 0.6 2.9 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 5.0 5.7 3.4 0.5 57.1 54.2 3.7 4.7 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 3.9 4.6 5.7 1.7 67.7 65.6 0.7 1.6 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 3.0 2.8 3.2 0.4 51.0 51.0 1.4 2.8 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 46 54 100 4.6 4.6 6.0 1.6 64.9 63.5 0.9 2.3 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 1.7 0.8 1.2 -0.3 44.3 44.1 0.4 1.1 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 4.0 4.1 4.8 0.1 53.1 51.4 2.7 3.5 6.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 4.9 5.5 6.4 2.1 71.2 69.2 1.3 2.2 4.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 4.4 4.1 6.3 1.9 67.5 65.5 1.1 2.1 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 4.4 5.4 5.5 1.2 60.5 59.2 2.5 4.1 6.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 2.9 4.3 4.2 0.8 60.7 57.5 1.1 2.5 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 4.2 4.3 2.7 0.4 53.3 52.6 3.2 4.0 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 4.0 5.6 4.9 0.9 62.3 59.2 1.2 3.6 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 3.9 2.3 2.1 -0.1 46.4 48.2 1.4 3.0 5.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 3.0 3.3 2.8 0.5 52.6 52.2 0.3 2.7 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 2.1 3.3 5.6 1.3 62.4 60.8 0.6 1.5 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------