***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 1.5 69.5 67.3 -3.5 -2.1 -0.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 1.5 71.1 68.2 -5.4 -2.5 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 1.4 0.6 -0.6 1.3 70.0 66.7 -2.4 -0.8 -0.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 -4.7 -5.4 -3.7 1.1 63.4 61.8 -8.2 -6.0 -5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 -1.7 -2.3 -2.9 1.2 64.2 63.5 -4.5 -3.3 -2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 -2.7 -3.2 -5.1 1.4 66.4 64.7 -5.3 -4.6 -3.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 -0.9 -0.9 -0.6 1.5 70.6 67.7 -4.9 -2.3 -1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 -7.0 -7.5 -4.8 1.0 61.6 61.2 -9.2 -8.2 -7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 -0.8 -2.1 -3.0 0.8 58.0 59.6 -3.4 -2.2 -0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 -2.3 -2.1 -4.3 1.0 60.9 61.0 -3.9 -2.8 -1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 -1.7 -2.5 -3.6 1.1 62.4 61.9 -4.1 -3.1 -2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 -2.5 -3.3 -4.0 1.2 62.2 62.7 -5.1 -4.0 -3.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 -1.8 -2.0 -3.9 1.6 69.0 67.1 -4.1 -3.1 -2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 -0.4 -0.9 -2.4 1.5 68.6 67.9 -3.1 -1.8 -1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 -2.2 -2.6 -2.8 0.7 56.9 58.8 -3.3 -2.7 -1.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 -0.8 -1.9 -4.0 1.4 65.0 64.5 -3.7 -2.4 -1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 -1.2 -1.3 -0.6 1.4 69.8 66.8 -4.8 -2.9 -1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 -3.4 -3.5 -4.4 1.3 65.7 64.6 -5.9 -4.6 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 -0.6 -1.1 -0.7 1.4 70.4 68.1 -4.8 -2.6 -1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 -6.6 -6.5 -5.4 1.3 65.8 65.2 -9.2 -8.0 -6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 -1.1 -1.6 -1.5 1.1 63.9 63.5 -4.0 -2.5 -1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 -1.2 -1.2 -0.6 1.5 72.5 68.7 -4.8 -2.9 -1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 -1.2 -1.3 -0.9 1.4 70.7 68.2 -4.3 -2.7 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 -1.7 -2.0 -2.7 1.3 67.8 65.7 -3.7 -2.5 -2.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 -1.5 -1.4 -1.8 1.4 67.4 65.5 -4.3 -3.2 -1.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 -2.0 -2.2 -4.1 1.5 66.6 66.4 -4.4 -3.4 -2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 -0.6 -0.7 -0.9 1.6 70.7 67.8 -4.2 -2.7 -0.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 -3.1 -3.3 -3.6 0.9 60.0 60.2 -4.6 -3.7 -2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 -3.8 -4.6 -5.0 1.2 63.8 63.6 -6.6 -5.4 -4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 1.5 71.0 68.0 -4.5 -2.3 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------