***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 -0.5 -1.1 -1.2 0.7 51.6 53.3 -2.8 -1.2 1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 -3.4 -1.6 -1.3 0.6 49.7 52.3 -3.9 -1.6 -0.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 -1.9 -0.3 -1.1 0.8 51.8 54.3 -1.9 -0.3 2.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -6.2 -6.7 -3.9 0.9 51.6 56.2 -8.3 -7.8 -2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 -2.1 -2.3 -3.3 1.0 53.1 56.5 -3.5 -2.8 -0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -5.3 -2.8 -5.6 0.9 53.6 56.6 -5.1 -3.2 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 -3.3 -2.3 -1.3 0.5 48.0 52.0 -3.2 -2.0 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -9.5 -7.4 -5.0 1.0 52.6 56.4 -9.5 -7.6 -5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 -1.1 -1.3 -2.8 1.0 52.3 56.4 -3.5 -1.9 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 -1.3 -1.5 -4.3 1.0 52.9 56.5 -2.9 -1.8 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 -4.1 -2.2 -3.9 1.1 53.5 57.2 -3.2 -2.3 -1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 -2.8 -3.1 -4.5 1.0 52.3 56.8 -4.3 -3.4 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 -2.1 -2.6 -5.1 0.7 52.4 55.3 -4.1 -2.7 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 -3.1 -0.9 -3.1 0.7 52.4 54.7 -2.3 -0.9 -0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 -3.3 -1.3 -3.0 0.7 49.1 55.1 -3.0 -1.2 -0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 -0.8 -1.2 -4.6 0.9 54.3 56.6 -3.0 -1.3 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 -3.3 -1.6 -1.3 0.4 47.8 52.0 -3.4 -1.4 -0.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -3.2 -3.6 -4.9 0.9 53.8 56.2 -4.7 -3.6 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 -3.7 -1.9 -1.3 0.6 50.8 53.0 -3.3 -2.1 0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -6.5 -7.1 -6.2 0.7 52.6 54.1 -8.7 -7.2 -5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 -3.4 -1.7 -1.8 0.9 52.5 55.2 -3.4 -2.0 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 -3.6 -2.2 -1.4 0.5 49.8 52.9 -3.1 -2.2 -0.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 -4.0 -2.1 -1.3 0.8 52.0 54.3 -3.3 -2.3 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 -3.7 -2.0 -3.2 0.9 53.0 56.1 -3.5 -2.1 -0.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 -1.7 -2.3 -2.6 0.8 50.8 54.0 -3.0 -2.3 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 -2.0 -2.6 -5.1 0.7 50.1 56.2 -3.5 -2.6 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 -0.6 -1.3 -1.7 0.7 50.9 53.1 -3.7 -1.4 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 -1.8 -1.9 -3.8 0.9 52.3 55.9 -4.7 -2.3 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 -3.7 -3.9 -5.2 0.9 53.5 55.6 -6.5 -4.6 -2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 -3.5 -1.6 -1.3 0.6 50.0 52.8 -3.0 -1.6 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------