***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-07.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 0.7 1.4 0.3 2.6 73.8 70.2 -4.4 -1.8 0.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 -0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 72.0 68.5 -4.9 -2.5 -0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 2.3 2.9 0.3 2.4 73.3 70.5 -2.5 -0.4 2.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 -4.0 -3.6 -2.7 2.3 66.9 68.3 -8.8 -6.8 -3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 -1.3 -1.5 -2.0 2.6 69.3 69.7 -4.8 -3.3 -1.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 -2.3 -2.3 -3.9 3.1 71.0 71.9 -5.5 -4.3 -2.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.2 70.9 68.2 -4.7 -1.9 -0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 -5.8 -5.3 -3.5 2.9 72.2 70.2 -10.7 -7.7 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 0.3 0.4 -1.5 2.6 70.5 70.4 -4.3 -2.1 -0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 -0.8 -0.6 -2.9 2.8 72.3 70.6 -4.5 -2.5 -1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 -1.4 -1.3 -2.6 2.8 69.2 70.5 -4.7 -3.0 -1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 -2.4 -1.9 -3.0 3.0 71.8 70.7 -5.5 -4.5 -2.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 -1.7 -1.7 -3.4 3.0 72.4 71.4 -5.0 -3.3 -2.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 0.2 0.7 -1.4 2.8 76.8 71.6 -3.2 -1.1 0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 -0.2 -1.3 -1.9 2.1 66.1 68.1 -3.3 -2.1 -1.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 -0.7 -0.9 -3.1 2.9 69.9 70.6 -3.6 -2.8 -1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 2.0 69.8 66.3 -5.2 -1.8 -0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 -3.1 -2.8 -3.4 2.9 72.4 70.8 -6.2 -4.7 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 -0.1 0.5 0.0 2.3 72.9 69.4 -4.3 -1.8 -0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 -5.9 -5.9 -4.7 2.8 72.1 69.4 -10.6 -8.9 -7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 2.5 71.4 70.0 -3.7 -2.3 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 2.1 70.3 67.3 -5.1 -1.4 0.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 2.4 74.0 70.5 -4.2 -2.0 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 -1.0 -0.7 -1.8 2.7 73.6 71.2 -4.2 -2.1 -1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 -0.7 -0.7 -1.2 2.5 71.6 69.3 -4.5 -2.8 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 -1.9 -1.7 -3.4 3.0 73.7 71.2 -4.9 -3.6 -2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 0.3 1.2 -0.1 2.6 73.3 69.8 -4.5 -2.7 -0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 -1.7 -1.9 -2.5 2.4 66.8 68.7 -5.4 -4.1 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 -2.1 -1.5 -3.7 2.9 73.3 70.2 -7.6 -5.4 -3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 0.7 0.6 0.1 2.4 72.1 69.4 -4.5 -1.7 -0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------