***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2021.-31.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 2.5 73.8 71.1 -5.5 -3.1 -1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 2.2 76.0 69.2 -6.1 -3.2 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 0.5 1.1 0.3 2.5 75.9 71.8 -3.4 -1.6 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 -5.2 -5.8 -3.2 1.7 63.0 64.0 -8.8 -6.7 -5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 -1.1 -0.3 -1.9 2.2 69.1 68.6 -4.1 -3.2 -0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 -2.2 -2.0 -3.9 2.5 69.9 70.4 -6.3 -4.8 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 2.1 73.9 68.4 -5.1 -3.2 -1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 -6.6 -7.8 -4.0 1.9 64.8 66.6 -10.8 -8.2 -7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 0.0 -0.1 -2.1 1.9 68.0 67.1 -4.2 -2.3 -0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 -1.0 -1.4 -3.5 1.8 65.8 66.2 -4.5 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 -0.9 -0.4 -2.3 2.4 71.0 69.9 -4.3 -2.9 -0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 -1.5 -1.3 -2.8 2.4 69.4 69.6 -5.3 -3.3 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 -1.2 -0.7 -2.4 2.9 74.9 72.7 -4.4 -3.2 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 0.0 0.2 -1.5 2.6 75.5 71.5 -4.1 -1.6 -1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 -0.9 -0.7 -1.7 1.9 66.6 65.5 -3.9 -2.7 -0.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 -0.6 -0.1 -2.7 2.5 71.3 70.2 -4.2 -2.6 -0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 -0.7 -1.3 -0.3 1.9 71.3 66.9 -5.0 -3.2 -1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 -2.4 -2.4 -3.6 2.1 67.2 67.9 -5.5 -3.9 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 -0.8 -0.2 -0.1 2.3 77.0 70.4 -5.2 -3.0 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 -5.9 -6.3 -4.7 2.1 67.8 67.7 -9.7 -8.1 -6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 2.4 72.8 70.7 -4.4 -2.5 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 -0.8 -0.2 -0.2 2.1 75.2 68.9 -5.3 -3.6 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 -0.8 -0.2 -0.2 2.4 77.8 72.0 -4.7 -2.3 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 -1.0 -0.9 -1.7 2.4 72.8 70.5 -4.8 -2.3 -1.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 -0.8 -0.4 -0.9 2.3 68.6 69.0 -4.4 -2.7 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 -1.5 -1.5 -3.2 2.3 70.3 69.1 -4.9 -3.6 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1 2.4 71.4 70.1 -5.3 -3.2 -1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 -1.9 -1.2 -2.7 2.0 66.0 65.7 -5.3 -4.2 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 -4.3 -4.3 -4.4 2.0 67.1 67.1 -8.6 -5.7 -4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 2.3 75.5 70.0 -5.3 -3.0 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------