***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 19.4 22.2 33.5 84.8 43.0 42.3 17.8 23.7 32.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 18.0 18.8 26.9 76.8 42.7 39.5 16.8 26.4 37.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 25.0 28.2 33.3 83.6 42.8 41.4 24.1 33.5 51.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 32.9 36.5 37.5 80.7 37.3 38.8 33.3 45.8 55.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 48.2 38.5 42.7 91.9 45.9 45.2 30.5 43.1 50.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 23.3 34.3 43.2 91.0 43.8 44.6 28.6 34.8 40.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 17.0 20.8 27.8 80.5 42.9 41.9 18.7 24.8 31.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 43.8 61.3 45.7 91.6 44.1 45.3 41.0 63.5 73.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 24.8 30.8 46.4 99.1 51.7 50.0 25.5 29.6 35.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 43.9 36.7 48.9 97.8 50.0 49.1 33.5 36.7 45.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 25.7 33.3 40.1 92.5 44.9 46.1 23.9 35.6 43.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 20.1 28.9 39.1 89.3 42.5 43.9 20.5 35.0 46.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 44.1 35.5 42.7 92.9 47.2 46.1 27.3 37.3 54.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 55.3 49.4 43.4 88.2 47.5 44.2 36.3 50.8 64.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 17.5 18.8 30.7 69.2 35.4 34.6 17.9 30.3 43.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 22.1 27.1 39.3 91.1 45.4 45.2 24.6 29.8 35.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 30.5 24.8 26.1 79.5 45.7 42.7 18.1 27.4 36.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 42.4 41.3 53.7 98.6 53.8 50.0 25.4 36.7 47.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 20.4 23.7 28.0 76.6 42.4 38.5 21.9 28.6 41.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 24.9 33.8 56.9 89.2 43.2 43.9 26.7 38.3 52.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 26.4 31.8 40.0 92.7 47.5 46.0 26.2 33.6 43.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 17.1 26.4 26.4 75.1 43.0 39.1 22.5 26.9 35.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 22.0 27.2 31.9 80.3 43.6 39.8 18.9 32.6 42.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 49.2 46.0 45.6 94.0 51.2 47.6 38.1 45.7 54.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 39.6 32.3 42.2 89.3 43.9 44.5 27.7 34.3 44.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 17.4 22.4 39.1 83.6 38.8 40.6 19.4 29.6 48.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 33.2 25.5 39.5 89.6 44.9 45.3 20.2 26.3 43.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 19.0 26.9 34.2 77.1 38.0 38.0 23.9 30.3 40.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 68.3 63.1 55.5 95.8 51.4 48.4 47.0 62.7 72.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 16.8 23.0 28.5 78.4 42.3 39.6 19.6 24.0 36.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------