***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 7.6 5.9 8.0 90.9 52.6 47.0 1.6 5.2 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.7 7.3 91.2 56.8 47.1 1.1 2.9 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.2 6.8 8.3 91.6 53.6 46.8 2.0 6.0 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.3 9.6 94.2 55.1 46.1 2.6 8.6 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.4 9.8 97.0 55.4 47.3 2.8 11.2 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.0 10.5 10.4 93.1 60.2 49.0 5.0 6.7 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.6 7.4 97.3 57.2 48.3 1.9 4.5 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 8.9 18.0 10.6 90.0 55.5 47.2 8.5 16.8 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.0 10.1 97.8 54.2 47.7 3.3 9.3 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.3 13.1 11.1 97.5 56.1 48.3 6.1 9.3 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.3 9.2 95.0 56.1 47.8 4.8 8.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.2 8.9 9.0 87.3 58.0 47.0 2.7 7.0 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 5.0 11.0 9.6 88.4 58.4 47.3 3.8 9.5 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.4 15.9 10.8 92.2 56.9 47.3 8.5 14.8 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.4 6.0 8.7 86.9 59.0 44.7 1.7 3.9 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.7 10.3 8.8 90.0 56.3 47.1 1.4 9.2 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.7 10.8 7.2 98.1 61.0 47.9 1.8 8.4 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.1 8.7 12.4 98.3 56.1 48.6 3.9 7.2 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.8 7.7 7.4 87.9 55.2 46.1 2.5 5.6 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.0 10.2 13.3 86.0 52.8 46.5 3.3 10.1 12.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.7 7.9 9.1 96.2 53.0 47.0 2.9 6.9 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 8.4 6.6 7.3 87.9 52.4 45.9 3.2 6.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.9 6.7 8.2 86.9 54.5 45.4 1.4 5.9 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.7 14.7 10.9 97.8 58.3 48.5 4.6 9.4 15.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.6 7.6 10.2 98.9 55.0 48.3 2.1 5.7 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.3 6.5 9.2 80.9 57.4 46.0 2.4 4.6 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.7 7.5 9.4 97.4 54.9 48.8 2.4 5.9 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.8 8.8 88.0 56.5 44.9 1.8 6.2 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.1 17.3 12.9 94.4 54.8 47.7 8.7 15.1 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.2 7.0 7.4 90.0 54.7 46.9 2.4 4.1 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------