***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 0.7 3.3 9.6 93.5 57.5 49.6 0.4 1.5 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 0.5 1.2 7.6 81.0 51.2 45.0 0.5 1.1 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 1.0 2.8 9.6 92.9 55.5 48.7 0.5 2.0 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.5 7.6 11.6 97.2 58.4 49.1 3.2 6.6 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.0 7.7 12.8 102.0 60.8 51.4 2.1 5.4 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.6 7.4 12.6 101.2 58.9 49.1 1.6 5.7 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 1.0 2.0 7.7 81.7 51.2 45.5 0.7 1.9 3.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.4 11.9 13.6 103.5 60.2 50.8 5.9 9.2 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 1.7 4.9 13.4 103.8 62.4 52.4 1.2 3.7 5.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 2.2 6.4 14.4 105.1 61.9 52.4 1.8 4.5 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 1.9 5.3 12.1 104.9 61.7 51.9 1.6 3.6 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 1.5 4.7 11.5 102.2 61.5 50.1 2.2 3.2 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.4 7.9 12.1 103.0 62.1 50.8 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 1.3 5.9 12.4 94.6 58.3 48.5 1.1 3.0 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 0.9 5.2 9.5 87.2 60.3 45.0 0.3 2.0 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.4 6.2 11.6 103.7 64.1 50.8 2.0 5.1 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 2.6 1.7 7.1 79.6 48.6 44.8 0.7 1.8 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 1.7 5.2 15.6 103.4 63.4 51.7 1.8 3.4 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 0.5 1.3 8.0 83.0 52.6 45.5 0.4 1.2 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 2.2 4.7 17.1 99.9 60.0 49.2 2.3 3.6 4.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 1.7 4.0 11.7 100.3 59.3 51.3 0.9 3.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 0.8 1.8 7.6 83.0 52.5 45.4 0.6 1.7 3.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 0.7 1.9 9.1 88.2 55.1 47.0 0.2 1.5 3.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 1.7 5.7 13.0 99.6 60.7 50.5 2.0 3.2 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 1.6 4.2 12.0 98.2 53.9 50.5 1.1 3.5 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 1.8 5.6 11.3 99.0 62.8 48.5 1.8 4.6 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.6 4.1 11.1 96.1 55.6 50.2 0.4 3.3 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 1.1 4.8 10.8 95.7 62.1 47.6 0.7 2.5 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 4.8 11.2 16.2 101.5 61.4 50.6 3.8 9.1 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 2.6 2.8 8.1 84.5 53.9 46.3 0.8 1.9 3.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------