***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.9 4.6 7.5 70.4 46.1 42.2 1.2 6.2 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.0 6.0 5.9 67.3 44.9 40.5 1.0 6.7 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.3 4.7 7.5 70.3 42.4 40.9 2.9 7.0 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.5 8.5 8.2 65.8 48.5 42.1 3.9 9.5 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.0 10.5 9.6 78.2 55.1 44.2 4.7 9.9 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.3 10.3 11.4 89.8 58.3 49.0 3.6 7.2 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.8 5.8 6.2 71.7 48.0 42.5 1.5 5.8 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.3 12.3 11.5 87.8 54.0 47.2 6.4 11.0 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.1 9.3 10.5 84.2 56.5 45.1 2.2 6.0 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.4 11.2 11.7 89.3 56.6 47.2 4.0 9.5 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.1 9.4 82.9 52.8 45.0 3.4 8.4 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.3 3.9 10.0 84.9 52.6 46.7 2.0 3.3 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.3 6.6 10.6 88.3 52.9 47.9 3.9 5.8 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.4 9.2 10.3 83.1 48.9 44.7 4.1 9.5 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.7 1.5 6.7 51.8 43.4 38.6 0.6 3.6 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.7 7.3 9.5 83.1 53.2 46.2 2.2 6.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.5 5.8 5.7 71.9 50.6 42.7 0.9 5.7 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.0 13.5 94.8 56.0 49.7 4.1 6.9 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.8 4.8 6.1 66.6 42.9 40.0 1.5 9.1 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.1 15.0 90.1 57.0 49.1 2.8 5.4 10.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.9 7.2 9.0 77.0 52.2 43.0 3.9 6.8 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.8 6.2 5.8 68.2 46.6 40.6 0.4 6.5 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.6 2.8 7.1 70.2 42.9 40.8 1.2 6.2 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.8 13.1 10.9 86.2 51.5 46.0 5.6 12.3 18.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.2 10.5 9.4 75.5 50.7 44.2 2.5 10.2 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 9.1 8.0 10.0 81.0 53.7 46.8 4.2 7.3 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.6 9.8 8.9 75.4 50.4 44.2 2.2 9.6 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.4 3.2 7.5 61.6 47.2 41.1 0.9 3.4 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 15.5 13.7 14.1 93.1 55.7 49.4 6.8 12.1 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.6 4.0 6.4 67.5 44.1 40.7 1.3 5.3 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------