***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-24.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 5.6 5.1 8.3 86.0 56.1 51.5 2.9 4.7 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.4 6.1 68.9 51.1 46.0 1.2 4.2 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 7.2 6.1 7.9 80.8 54.1 50.6 3.8 5.8 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.7 8.5 8.1 68.2 39.8 39.8 5.4 10.1 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 7.3 6.9 10.6 91.4 54.1 50.8 1.7 5.5 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 6.7 5.7 8.8 78.8 50.2 47.6 3.0 5.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.4 4.3 6.5 73.4 52.5 47.4 2.0 4.2 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 13.8 12.5 9.9 84.0 50.0 48.6 5.6 12.5 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 6.6 11.0 12.3 111.9 64.8 59.3 2.6 5.3 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 8.7 10.1 11.8 99.2 57.6 54.7 3.5 7.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 8.6 7.4 9.3 87.2 53.4 50.2 3.9 7.3 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 9.7 9.0 8.6 82.3 50.8 48.5 1.9 8.8 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 7.9 7.6 10.3 91.5 53.9 52.9 4.7 7.3 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 11.2 9.9 9.9 82.6 54.9 51.2 7.8 9.7 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.8 7.0 5.8 55.1 40.5 37.6 4.9 8.6 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 6.7 6.5 9.4 87.4 53.5 51.3 2.8 6.0 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.1 6.1 70.4 51.6 46.7 1.2 4.1 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 8.0 8.9 12.3 97.3 58.0 54.5 5.2 7.3 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 7.3 6.3 6.4 69.6 51.5 47.3 3.0 6.2 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 9.5 8.7 11.5 79.4 49.9 46.5 4.7 8.7 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 8.4 8.1 10.3 98.5 59.0 54.8 3.3 7.3 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 6.0 3.8 5.7 62.2 46.9 43.8 1.7 4.8 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 6.9 7.1 7.6 76.2 53.8 51.1 2.7 6.2 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 9.8 12.6 10.7 92.5 57.5 54.3 4.0 8.5 14.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 7.3 7.4 10.6 86.6 52.9 48.7 3.3 5.7 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 4.3 2.5 8.6 73.9 45.5 44.7 1.3 3.0 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 5.2 5.1 10.2 91.4 55.0 52.1 3.0 4.3 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.0 4.8 7.1 65.5 43.4 42.1 3.8 5.2 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 14.2 12.9 12.3 93.4 55.6 53.1 8.9 12.5 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 5.6 4.3 6.7 73.0 52.7 47.9 1.5 3.9 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------