***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.5 2.6 3.1 -0.8 35.2 42.3 1.9 4.4 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.0 3.4 3.7 -0.2 45.3 49.8 2.4 3.5 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.1 4.2 3.5 -0.6 40.0 44.7 3.1 4.8 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -2.0 -1.0 0.8 -0.8 37.6 42.1 -1.4 0.0 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.1 3.2 1.4 -1.1 33.8 38.7 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.8 2.6 -0.2 -1.7 28.3 32.3 2.8 4.3 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.5 3.1 3.4 -0.4 42.5 47.8 1.9 3.3 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -3.1 -2.3 0.7 -1.4 29.5 34.3 -2.0 -1.6 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.8 4.0 2.4 -0.9 35.6 40.2 3.6 5.5 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.2 3.7 1.5 -1.2 32.9 37.0 3.7 5.0 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 3.2 3.2 1.2 -1.3 30.7 35.2 3.3 4.8 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 3.5 3.2 0.9 -1.5 28.1 32.7 3.6 5.3 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 3.2 2.7 0.4 -1.8 25.8 29.4 3.5 4.9 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.6 5.2 3.2 -0.4 45.4 46.1 4.2 5.9 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.1 4.1 1.5 -0.6 42.2 45.4 3.1 5.1 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.7 3.3 0.6 -1.5 29.0 32.9 3.8 5.1 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.4 3.8 0.1 50.4 52.4 2.5 3.4 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 2.6 2.4 1.3 -1.1 33.8 37.4 2.4 4.0 6.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 4.8 3.6 3.9 -0.1 47.3 50.2 2.8 3.7 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 0.0 0.7 -0.6 -1.5 26.0 32.8 0.8 1.8 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.5 3.7 2.9 -0.8 37.5 41.6 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.6 4.1 0.3 55.3 54.7 2.7 4.3 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 5.5 4.4 4.0 -0.2 47.2 49.8 2.6 4.6 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.6 5.0 2.8 -0.8 39.0 42.0 3.8 5.6 7.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.6 2.3 1.6 -0.9 34.2 40.2 2.3 4.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 3.5 3.2 0.0 -1.8 25.5 28.3 3.5 5.1 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.0 2.6 2.3 -0.9 33.1 40.3 2.6 4.5 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.6 4.7 1.2 -0.8 38.8 42.3 3.5 5.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 0.2 0.9 0.6 -1.2 32.2 36.0 1.0 1.9 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.0 3.2 3.6 -0.4 40.8 47.5 2.1 3.6 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------