***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 6.5 8.1 6.3 1.2 60.0 60.4 3.6 5.4 8.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 6.1 7.3 6.8 1.7 60.0 63.1 3.7 5.2 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 6.9 8.6 6.6 1.4 61.1 61.5 3.9 5.6 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 3.3 3.7 4.1 1.2 67.4 60.2 -2.6 0.2 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.3 8.1 4.6 1.1 64.5 59.1 4.4 6.0 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.1 3.1 0.6 56.1 55.4 3.9 5.5 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.7 6.5 1.5 58.8 62.4 3.5 5.1 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -0.2 0.4 3.8 0.9 63.3 58.4 -2.8 -0.5 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.0 9.0 5.5 1.2 63.4 59.4 3.7 6.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 7.9 8.7 4.6 1.1 62.7 59.0 3.8 6.9 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 7.3 8.1 4.3 0.8 61.8 57.0 3.7 6.3 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.3 8.1 4.1 0.7 62.7 56.7 3.5 6.4 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 7.1 7.5 3.4 0.5 56.0 54.7 4.9 6.2 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 7.7 8.9 6.2 1.7 64.6 62.2 4.2 6.6 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 8.6 8.4 4.5 1.4 67.5 61.3 3.3 6.2 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.8 8.1 3.8 0.6 59.7 55.7 5.3 6.7 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 6.2 7.2 6.7 1.8 63.1 63.7 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.3 4.5 1.2 62.4 59.8 3.4 6.2 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 6.1 7.6 7.0 1.7 62.2 63.3 3.7 5.2 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 3.6 4.6 2.5 1.0 61.3 59.3 0.4 3.1 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.2 8.4 6.0 1.3 62.7 60.1 4.0 5.6 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 8.5 8.8 7.0 1.9 69.5 64.5 4.4 5.8 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 6.6 7.9 7.1 1.7 64.3 63.1 4.3 5.6 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 8.2 9.0 5.9 1.4 63.4 60.9 3.8 6.9 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.5 7.4 4.7 1.2 63.6 60.0 3.8 5.3 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 7.3 8.0 3.3 0.6 58.3 55.8 5.0 6.5 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.8 5.4 1.1 60.4 59.9 3.6 5.7 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.8 8.5 4.4 1.2 66.8 60.0 4.7 6.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 3.2 5.6 3.7 1.2 62.9 59.9 0.1 2.4 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.2 7.1 6.7 1.6 59.4 62.3 3.8 5.3 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------