***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 5.2 4.5 3.9 0.4 53.2 54.0 1.4 3.9 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.2 6.0 4.4 0.8 57.0 57.4 1.9 4.9 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.0 6.2 4.3 0.5 53.1 54.6 3.0 5.7 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 0.4 0.0 2.0 0.4 54.0 53.6 -2.5 -0.4 2.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 6.2 5.3 2.4 0.2 52.9 51.9 2.6 5.1 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.5 4.5 1.1 -0.2 48.6 49.2 1.8 4.6 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.6 5.6 4.1 0.6 55.9 56.2 1.7 4.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -0.6 -1.3 1.8 0.0 49.9 50.4 -3.0 -1.3 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.3 6.2 3.2 0.2 51.3 51.9 3.2 6.1 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 7.6 6.3 2.4 0.0 49.7 50.9 3.7 6.4 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.8 5.4 2.2 -0.1 49.5 50.0 2.8 5.4 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.1 5.5 2.0 -0.2 49.3 49.3 3.7 5.9 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.6 4.9 1.4 -0.4 47.5 47.7 3.0 5.3 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.4 3.9 0.5 54.7 54.9 4.4 6.8 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.5 2.5 0.6 53.9 55.3 4.2 6.0 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.8 5.3 1.7 -0.2 49.0 49.0 3.5 5.6 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.5 4.5 0.9 58.9 59.2 2.4 5.0 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.3 2.3 0.1 50.3 51.3 3.6 5.2 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.7 4.7 0.9 57.8 57.6 2.5 5.0 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.8 2.1 0.6 0.0 51.5 50.6 0.4 1.9 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.1 6.2 3.7 0.3 53.1 53.0 3.1 5.9 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.8 4.8 1.1 60.0 60.4 2.8 5.8 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.5 7.2 4.8 0.8 57.1 57.0 3.0 5.3 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.1 3.6 0.3 51.6 52.9 3.9 6.6 9.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 5.2 4.5 2.5 0.3 54.5 53.6 2.0 4.3 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.0 4.2 1.2 -0.4 45.0 47.8 3.3 4.4 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 5.6 4.8 3.2 0.3 52.1 53.5 2.2 4.6 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.6 7.5 2.3 0.4 52.5 53.4 5.5 7.0 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.5 2.5 1.6 0.1 50.0 51.2 0.7 2.4 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.6 4.3 0.6 54.2 56.1 1.8 4.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------