***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 0.6 1.4 2.8 -0.3 44.7 48.5 1.0 1.7 5.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 3.4 2.3 3.3 0.3 49.2 53.3 0.9 2.4 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.4 3.1 0.0 48.1 51.3 1.5 4.5 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -2.6 -1.9 0.6 -0.1 46.5 49.8 -2.5 -1.1 0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.2 3.7 1.1 -0.2 47.2 48.9 2.3 4.5 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 4.7 3.0 -0.2 -0.6 44.6 45.8 2.0 4.0 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 3.2 1.4 3.0 0.0 46.2 51.6 0.2 2.0 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.4 -2.1 0.5 -0.4 45.8 47.4 -3.2 -2.1 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.8 4.8 1.9 -0.2 47.7 49.2 2.0 5.2 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.1 1.2 -0.2 47.3 48.6 1.7 4.4 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.2 3.9 0.9 -0.4 46.6 47.4 2.1 4.4 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.1 0.7 -0.6 44.1 46.1 1.7 4.4 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.2 2.7 0.1 -0.8 42.4 44.3 1.9 4.6 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.0 2.8 0.3 53.7 53.7 1.7 4.6 6.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.0 3.7 0.9 -0.1 46.0 50.4 2.3 3.8 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.6 3.6 0.4 -0.6 45.2 46.3 2.7 4.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 2.9 2.0 3.4 0.5 51.9 54.9 0.5 1.9 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.9 2.9 1.2 -0.2 47.9 49.5 1.9 3.2 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 3.3 2.4 3.5 0.4 50.4 54.0 0.4 2.3 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.3 1.1 -0.5 -0.4 46.7 47.3 0.2 1.6 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.1 2.4 -0.2 47.3 49.6 2.8 4.6 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 3.8 4.1 3.7 0.8 55.7 57.0 1.3 2.8 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 3.8 2.9 3.6 0.4 50.6 54.4 0.7 2.7 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 5.6 4.8 2.4 0.1 49.9 51.5 2.2 4.9 6.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 1.1 2.2 1.2 -0.4 45.7 47.9 1.7 2.6 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.1 3.3 0.0 -0.9 40.4 42.7 2.8 4.5 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.1 1.8 2.0 -0.5 44.2 47.3 1.4 2.6 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 5.3 4.3 0.8 -0.1 46.8 50.2 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 1.6 0.8 0.6 -0.2 48.1 48.7 -0.5 1.0 2.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 2.9 1.8 3.2 0.1 46.5 51.9 0.7 1.9 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------