***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-24.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 90 10 0 100 0.8 -0.9 -0.5 -4.6 2.5 10.1 1.2 2.8 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 82 18 0 100 0.4 -0.3 0.4 -3.5 8.1 16.3 0.9 1.5 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 1.1 -0.7 0.0 -4.3 3.6 11.5 2.1 3.4 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 93 7 0 100 -5.7 -7.2 -3.4 -4.9 5.6 10.5 -3.0 -1.4 1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 97 3 0 100 0.6 -0.8 -2.5 -5.4 3.4 8.1 2.6 3.2 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 98 2 0 100 0.5 -1.6 -4.6 -6.5 3.6 8.0 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 0.2 -1.3 0.1 -3.7 6.4 14.8 0.6 1.3 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 99 1 0 100 -4.6 -6.9 -3.4 -6.0 4.5 8.1 -2.1 -0.5 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 95 5 0 100 1.3 -0.7 -1.2 -4.9 3.3 8.7 2.7 4.4 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 99 1 0 100 0.5 -0.8 -2.4 -5.6 4.5 8.7 2.2 3.7 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 97 3 0 100 0.6 -1.0 -2.6 -5.6 4.3 8.1 3.0 3.7 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 99 1 0 100 0.8 -0.9 -3.2 -6.0 4.1 7.7 3.0 4.8 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 0.2 -1.4 -3.4 -6.5 3.6 6.9 2.9 4.4 5.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 1.0 0.1 0.0 -4.2 7.3 13.9 2.6 3.3 5.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 90 10 0 100 -0.5 -2.1 -1.7 -4.3 6.0 12.5 0.6 2.9 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 98 2 0 100 0.9 -0.8 -3.3 -6.0 3.8 7.4 3.7 4.7 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 0.3 -0.1 0.5 -2.9 14.9 20.2 0.7 1.6 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 94 6 0 100 0.4 -0.9 -2.7 -5.7 5.1 9.3 1.4 2.8 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 81 19 0 100 0.4 -0.6 0.5 -3.6 7.2 16.1 0.9 2.3 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 -1.8 -3.5 -4.8 -6.5 3.6 7.4 0.4 1.1 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 94 6 0 100 1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -4.7 3.4 9.2 2.7 3.5 6.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 0.5 0.0 1.0 -2.7 15.9 22.2 1.3 2.2 4.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 0.7 -0.3 0.5 -3.7 6.1 15.1 1.1 2.1 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 89 11 0 100 1.6 0.1 -0.7 -4.8 5.9 11.3 2.5 4.1 6.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 0.5 -0.9 -1.9 -4.9 3.1 8.6 1.1 2.5 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 1.0 -0.5 -4.4 -6.6 3.3 5.9 3.2 4.0 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 94 6 0 100 0.7 -1.2 -1.2 -4.8 2.8 9.2 1.2 3.6 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 93 7 0 100 -0.8 -1.8 -2.7 -4.8 5.9 11.6 1.4 3.0 5.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 96 4 0 100 -2.2 -4.1 -3.4 -5.9 4.7 9.0 0.3 2.7 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 0.4 -0.8 0.1 -3.9 5.1 13.7 0.6 1.5 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------