***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 -4.3 -4.5 -3.7 -1.2 25.2 37.2 -3.5 -2.1 -0.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 -4.4 -4.3 -3.0 -0.3 39.2 47.4 -5.4 -2.5 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 -2.3 -2.6 -3.8 -1.0 27.5 38.2 -2.4 -0.8 -0.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -7.8 -8.4 -7.2 -1.4 31.9 36.9 -8.2 -6.0 -5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 -4.8 -4.7 -7.3 -1.7 29.5 32.7 -4.5 -3.3 -2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 -5.7 -5.4 -9.4 -2.1 22.6 28.3 -5.3 -4.6 -3.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 -4.3 -4.2 -3.1 -0.5 36.1 46.2 -4.9 -2.3 -1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 -9.7 -9.8 -9.1 -2.1 23.2 29.1 -9.2 -8.2 -7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 -4.1 -3.8 -6.3 -1.7 28.5 32.6 -3.4 -2.2 -0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 -4.2 -4.6 -7.9 -1.8 25.7 31.3 -3.9 -2.8 -1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 -5.3 -4.8 -8.1 -2.1 26.5 30.1 -4.1 -3.1 -2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 -5.2 -5.4 -8.7 -2.4 22.0 26.9 -5.1 -4.0 -3.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 -5.3 -5.6 -9.0 -2.4 18.4 25.4 -4.1 -3.1 -2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 -3.3 -3.6 -5.5 -1.0 29.3 38.4 -3.1 -1.8 -1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 -4.3 -3.1 -5.9 -1.0 34.9 40.1 -3.3 -2.7 -1.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 -4.2 -3.9 -8.8 -2.3 25.1 28.0 -3.7 -2.4 -1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 -2.3 -3.1 -2.7 -0.1 44.7 50.6 -4.8 -2.9 -1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 -6.2 -6.5 -8.4 -1.8 22.6 30.5 -5.9 -4.6 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 -1.9 -4.0 -3.1 -0.4 37.8 46.8 -4.8 -2.6 -1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 -9.5 -10.0 -10.2 -2.0 21.2 28.8 -9.2 -8.0 -6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 -4.2 -4.4 -4.8 -1.4 28.3 34.3 -4.0 -2.5 -1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 -2.4 -3.0 -2.5 0.1 48.6 53.0 -4.8 -2.9 -1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 -2.2 -3.8 -3.5 -0.5 36.0 45.1 -4.3 -2.7 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 -4.3 -4.8 -6.1 -1.4 25.1 34.1 -3.7 -2.5 -2.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 -4.4 -4.3 -5.8 -1.3 30.3 35.6 -4.3 -3.2 -1.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 -4.7 -5.0 -9.2 -2.7 17.4 23.9 -4.4 -3.4 -2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 -4.4 -4.8 -4.7 -1.3 26.5 36.7 -4.2 -2.7 -0.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 -5.7 -4.9 -7.1 -1.5 30.8 35.8 -4.6 -3.7 -2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 -6.7 -6.9 -9.3 -2.0 20.6 28.4 -6.6 -5.4 -4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 -4.2 -4.4 -3.2 -0.6 33.7 44.0 -4.5 -2.3 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------