***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-24.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 90 10 0 100 -4.5 -6.1 -6.3 -4.5 2.3 10.2 -3.5 -2.3 -1.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 84 16 0 100 -5.8 -7.3 -5.3 -3.1 7.3 16.9 -3.9 -3.0 -1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 91 9 0 100 -3.5 -4.8 -6.4 -4.4 2.1 9.8 -2.7 -1.3 -0.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 -10.3 -11.7 -10.4 -5.4 3.3 9.0 -8.7 -5.7 -5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 97 3 0 100 -5.4 -6.5 -10.0 -5.9 3.6 7.6 -4.1 -2.8 -2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 98 2 0 100 -6.4 -6.6 -12.4 -6.0 9.7 11.0 -5.0 -3.6 -2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 -5.9 -8.0 -5.5 -3.2 7.6 16.8 -4.2 -3.4 -1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 98 2 0 100 -11.0 -12.3 -12.4 -6.7 6.7 8.8 -9.1 -6.9 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 94 6 0 100 -4.8 -6.4 -9.3 -5.9 2.4 6.8 -3.3 -2.6 -1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 97 3 0 100 -5.4 -6.3 -11.1 -6.3 4.5 7.6 -3.8 -2.6 -1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 97 3 0 100 -6.1 -6.8 -10.5 -5.9 5.7 9.0 -4.0 -3.1 -1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 98 2 0 100 -6.4 -7.3 -11.8 -6.7 8.0 9.4 -4.4 -3.6 -2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 -6.0 -6.7 -12.1 -6.7 8.9 9.4 -4.2 -3.4 -1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 93 7 0 100 -4.1 -5.9 -7.9 -4.6 3.5 9.5 -3.3 -2.0 -1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 95 5 0 100 -5.8 -8.0 -8.5 -5.0 4.0 8.6 -4.2 -2.5 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 97 3 0 100 -4.8 -5.5 -11.5 -6.3 7.3 9.1 -3.6 -2.2 -1.4 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 -5.8 -7.1 -5.2 -2.8 12.0 19.7 -5.0 -3.1 -2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 97 3 0 100 -7.1 -7.9 -11.4 -6.2 5.1 7.7 -5.4 -4.4 -3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 -5.6 -6.8 -5.4 -3.2 5.3 15.6 -4.5 -3.2 -1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 98 2 0 100 -10.6 -11.4 -13.6 -6.7 8.7 8.9 -9.3 -7.2 -5.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 91 9 0 100 -5.0 -6.3 -7.4 -5.2 2.1 7.8 -3.9 -2.6 -1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 -5.8 -6.4 -4.6 -2.4 13.9 21.2 -4.2 -3.4 -2.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 89 11 0 100 -4.8 -6.7 -5.8 -3.5 3.9 13.8 -4.4 -2.8 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 96 4 0 100 -5.5 -6.2 -8.7 -5.3 3.4 8.2 -4.4 -3.1 -2.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 95 5 0 100 -4.8 -6.2 -8.5 -5.4 2.5 7.3 -3.2 -2.6 -1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 -5.7 -7.2 -12.8 -7.2 7.2 8.3 -4.6 -3.5 -1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 90 10 0 100 -5.1 -6.7 -7.3 -4.7 3.3 10.6 -3.2 -2.8 -1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 95 5 0 100 -7.0 -9.2 -9.9 -5.5 3.5 8.7 -5.6 -3.3 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 99 1 0 100 -8.0 -9.5 -13.0 -6.7 7.2 8.3 -5.8 -4.4 -3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 85 15 0 100 -5.6 -7.3 -5.6 -3.5 4.3 14.4 -4.0 -2.8 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------