***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 16.9 26.1 42.8 105.5 57.8 54.4 17.8 23.7 33.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 28.4 33.6 39.6 114.0 62.2 58.3 14.4 24.8 34.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 25.7 41.7 43.0 107.7 59.7 55.6 25.2 35.6 48.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 50.4 55.9 57.0 120.9 68.2 61.7 32.9 45.1 54.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 30.5 42.7 45.9 96.8 49.6 48.2 31.2 42.7 44.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 37.4 32.5 41.5 93.4 44.8 46.3 27.9 34.1 37.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 28.0 29.4 37.9 111.6 61.4 57.2 19.9 25.1 32.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 67.4 61.1 49.0 97.0 48.7 47.7 41.2 61.2 71.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 20.5 28.0 46.4 97.0 50.9 48.1 23.3 27.9 33.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 38.2 32.7 48.5 94.4 46.6 45.8 28.7 33.6 39.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 21.7 29.5 45.3 96.3 49.1 47.9 23.3 30.2 42.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 42.0 37.2 44.4 96.8 49.6 48.1 20.2 37.6 42.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 40.9 28.0 44.9 91.2 42.2 44.2 23.1 34.3 48.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 54.5 55.2 54.0 104.5 56.5 53.5 35.2 50.1 63.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 47.1 62.3 62.9 145.1 79.5 68.9 16.9 29.0 42.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 35.0 29.0 43.7 94.6 48.3 47.1 20.9 29.5 36.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 29.8 35.2 37.4 112.2 60.8 57.5 18.6 26.8 36.3 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 24.8 33.0 50.1 93.4 47.9 45.5 24.5 33.7 43.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 32.8 41.1 41.4 113.8 62.4 58.5 20.8 29.1 42.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 24.5 34.3 61.5 94.6 48.7 46.1 26.3 35.7 49.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 24.5 34.4 44.6 99.9 53.4 51.0 25.3 32.5 40.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 31.3 33.3 41.3 114.9 62.2 58.7 18.9 27.4 36.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 33.9 38.0 44.3 110.4 60.4 57.3 17.2 30.6 41.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 33.4 45.5 48.6 100.8 54.3 51.0 36.0 44.1 53.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 36.5 32.4 47.1 98.9 50.2 50.4 27.1 32.3 38.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 17.8 26.7 44.3 96.1 46.1 48.4 17.3 28.6 46.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 33.8 28.3 44.1 101.6 54.2 51.9 21.1 27.4 41.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 46.2 47.5 56.4 127.7 70.5 63.1 17.3 29.9 40.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 40.1 55.3 53.4 92.8 46.7 45.0 43.2 57.6 68.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 30.0 33.1 40.1 112.0 62.2 57.3 17.5 26.8 35.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------