***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 1.6 5.8 9.3 90.7 57.1 45.4 1.6 3.7 8.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.2 6.0 8.8 102.5 63.0 47.6 1.5 2.8 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.0 7.7 9.7 97.0 60.6 45.6 2.6 6.4 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 3.8 11.1 10.3 96.2 57.0 47.4 3.9 8.6 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 4.5 9.8 10.3 90.1 50.6 44.4 3.1 9.5 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.6 7.1 9.4 86.4 50.9 42.8 3.5 6.7 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.9 6.5 8.4 98.4 62.5 47.8 2.2 4.0 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 6.5 15.0 10.2 80.7 50.4 41.6 7.2 14.8 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.8 6.8 10.9 89.0 51.6 43.6 2.7 6.1 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 3.4 6.5 11.0 84.2 50.1 42.1 3.8 6.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 2.9 6.6 9.8 86.4 51.4 43.1 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 1.6 4.7 9.0 80.4 51.5 41.6 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.1 7.7 9.8 82.6 50.0 42.8 3.6 7.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 4.3 13.7 12.1 94.3 54.8 43.9 6.5 11.5 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.2 9.4 10.5 108.0 64.7 50.6 0.6 4.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.5 6.8 9.5 85.6 51.3 43.5 2.6 6.7 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.2 9.9 8.1 96.8 61.1 48.0 2.3 6.2 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.5 6.9 11.3 82.0 50.0 41.3 3.0 6.9 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 2.1 8.4 9.2 103.6 62.9 47.0 2.9 5.1 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 3.8 7.2 13.2 78.2 49.0 41.8 4.3 7.7 9.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.0 7.9 10.1 89.6 53.4 44.5 3.4 6.9 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.7 6.9 9.0 102.7 61.0 48.6 2.6 5.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.2 8.2 9.7 100.1 60.4 45.5 1.7 5.3 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 4.2 13.8 11.0 90.8 54.7 43.0 4.2 8.9 15.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.8 6.1 10.1 86.3 54.1 45.0 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 1.7 4.4 8.8 78.2 51.0 41.6 1.6 4.3 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.0 9.7 88.9 56.9 45.5 4.2 6.8 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.3 8.2 10.1 100.3 60.2 48.1 0.5 5.3 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 6.0 12.8 11.8 80.0 48.9 41.0 7.4 13.3 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.1 7.1 9.0 101.2 62.3 47.2 2.2 4.4 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------