***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2017.-05.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 3.0 2.8 10.0 90.9 55.1 47.6 0.1 1.9 4.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 3.2 3.4 9.1 98.7 59.5 50.7 0.8 2.6 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 4.4 3.7 9.7 90.1 55.9 47.3 1.2 2.3 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.7 7.2 9.8 81.0 50.0 43.8 5.8 7.2 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.2 8.1 10.1 81.5 50.7 44.0 5.4 7.9 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.4 6.8 9.6 84.2 54.7 46.7 2.5 6.3 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 4.0 4.2 9.4 103.8 61.7 51.8 1.5 3.3 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 6.5 12.2 10.4 80.6 50.2 44.5 7.6 12.2 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 1.9 3.8 10.6 80.0 48.5 43.0 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.8 5.9 10.9 80.0 48.2 43.5 2.7 6.1 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.0 9.6 79.9 50.5 44.2 3.6 6.0 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.7 4.6 9.3 80.4 52.0 44.8 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.8 7.7 10.1 82.4 50.9 45.6 3.5 7.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 2.2 5.4 12.1 89.8 53.2 45.6 3.2 5.0 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 0.7 1.9 9.0 79.9 54.6 45.9 0.3 1.5 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.8 6.6 9.6 82.4 52.6 45.5 4.5 6.4 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 3.4 4.7 9.4 107.7 63.0 53.0 0.8 2.5 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 2.5 5.2 11.6 81.9 48.0 43.5 2.9 5.3 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 3.9 4.1 9.2 95.0 58.5 49.3 0.7 2.4 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 2.3 4.7 13.7 81.1 48.8 43.9 2.5 4.8 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.2 4.4 10.2 84.0 50.8 44.6 3.3 4.4 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.6 4.3 9.9 105.3 63.2 52.4 0.5 3.1 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 1.0 2.7 9.7 90.9 55.7 47.3 0.8 2.0 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.3 6.1 10.9 85.1 50.2 44.1 3.5 6.0 8.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.6 7.5 10.9 86.3 52.5 45.2 2.3 7.1 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.4 9.6 84.9 52.2 45.8 3.3 6.1 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.7 10.7 91.2 55.8 47.0 0.6 4.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.0 2.9 9.3 82.0 53.8 45.7 0.9 2.0 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 5.2 10.1 12.4 82.8 48.8 43.2 4.1 10.4 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 3.8 3.9 9.4 97.3 59.6 50.1 1.1 2.9 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------