***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-29.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 11.2 13.5 13.5 128.3 71.0 57.0 4.2 9.3 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.4 11.8 12.7 145.6 75.0 62.8 2.3 6.3 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.4 14.4 12.1 119.7 66.3 54.5 3.9 7.4 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 3.9 9.2 11.8 100.4 58.3 48.9 2.6 8.5 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.1 11.7 99.9 57.7 50.2 4.2 8.1 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.3 9.1 81.7 51.4 46.1 4.4 7.8 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 10.6 13.3 12.8 148.8 76.3 64.2 1.3 5.6 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 5.5 11.5 10.8 87.9 51.3 44.6 5.0 11.3 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.2 6.3 10.3 87.6 50.6 44.9 1.8 6.3 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.7 6.3 10.1 82.7 48.6 43.6 2.5 6.8 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.9 5.9 10.5 87.7 50.5 45.3 2.1 5.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.0 3.9 9.9 85.1 50.0 43.8 2.0 3.9 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.5 9.4 10.1 83.0 49.6 45.6 4.5 9.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.8 15.1 13.0 100.1 57.1 48.9 2.5 11.9 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.8 8.8 11.8 110.7 65.7 53.5 1.0 3.4 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.3 6.5 10.4 90.1 52.6 48.2 3.5 6.1 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 11.3 13.4 12.4 147.6 76.0 64.5 0.7 5.7 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.0 6.8 11.2 86.9 51.0 44.9 2.6 6.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.2 13.1 12.5 135.8 72.3 59.8 2.1 9.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.8 12.9 16.7 104.7 60.8 50.2 3.3 5.9 16.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.1 6.7 11.3 101.9 58.1 49.1 3.1 5.9 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 11.9 12.2 12.3 137.0 72.7 60.6 0.9 7.6 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.4 14.4 12.4 119.8 67.5 55.5 1.0 7.1 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.9 9.6 11.4 95.0 54.1 46.6 2.8 7.7 17.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.4 13.5 14.1 115.8 65.1 54.1 4.1 9.4 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.0 8.0 10.2 87.5 51.9 47.4 3.2 7.8 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.0 12.0 14.0 124.0 69.4 56.1 3.2 5.9 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.0 7.9 11.1 101.8 60.3 51.1 1.0 4.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.4 18.9 13.4 94.9 55.5 47.3 3.7 12.4 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.5 14.0 12.5 139.1 73.7 60.8 2.2 7.0 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------