***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.9 6.0 10.0 113.7 67.3 57.7 0.5 4.0 5.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.3 5.1 8.9 109.6 66.0 55.1 0.3 2.3 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 9.6 10.8 11.6 126.5 70.8 62.7 0.9 5.3 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 14.3 22.2 25.1 198.1 83.6 75.7 5.6 8.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 7.5 12.6 13.7 117.2 65.6 61.5 1.4 5.3 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 5.7 8.3 13.5 122.1 66.6 62.4 1.0 4.3 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.0 3.6 7.3 94.0 57.1 49.4 0.5 2.1 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 14.0 15.1 17.6 138.7 72.9 67.8 4.9 10.3 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 8.7 9.8 14.7 137.4 72.7 67.3 1.1 4.8 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 10.4 10.5 16.5 133.1 70.8 66.3 1.3 4.7 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 9.1 8.8 15.5 131.0 69.8 66.0 2.3 5.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 8.1 9.3 16.2 141.5 73.4 68.7 1.8 4.9 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 6.8 7.7 14.9 115.2 62.9 60.2 2.5 6.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 12.8 13.9 16.8 135.9 73.2 67.5 2.9 6.3 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 10.8 18.8 31.5 270.4 89.8 81.8 2.1 4.3 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 8.1 7.7 14.2 119.4 66.4 62.1 1.3 3.6 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.1 2.4 7.5 95.7 59.3 49.8 0.8 1.6 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 8.4 8.9 15.9 126.2 68.4 64.6 2.3 5.3 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.8 9.7 10.5 122.0 70.5 60.1 0.5 3.5 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 5.3 6.9 17.9 117.3 66.5 61.7 3.2 4.6 6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 10.3 12.3 13.0 128.1 70.7 64.3 1.9 4.1 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.9 7.6 10.1 114.7 67.9 56.6 0.5 2.8 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 10.2 8.4 12.5 133.1 71.9 65.4 0.4 4.4 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 13.1 15.0 15.3 135.7 72.3 67.3 1.9 5.5 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.2 8.8 11.9 107.6 63.7 56.1 0.8 4.2 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 3.6 5.4 15.7 132.5 67.9 64.0 1.1 2.8 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 4.5 5.8 9.6 102.1 61.8 53.3 0.3 3.3 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 8.7 15.9 25.9 216.8 84.3 77.3 1.4 4.6 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 9.5 13.0 15.7 115.9 65.8 61.9 3.7 7.4 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.8 9.2 111.5 65.9 56.0 0.5 3.1 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------