***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 1.8 0.8 2.8 -1.8 18.4 26.8 2.6 4.2 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 1.2 0.6 2.4 -2.2 17.0 23.1 2.5 4.0 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 2.4 1.6 2.9 -2.2 17.0 24.2 3.6 5.0 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 -2.3 -2.5 -0.3 -2.1 21.0 25.0 -1.5 -0.1 1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.9 3.1 1.5 -1.7 25.8 29.4 3.6 5.0 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.9 3.7 1.4 -0.7 40.0 41.7 3.2 4.4 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 1.0 0.2 2.9 -1.6 20.6 28.0 2.0 3.7 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.0 -2.0 1.6 -1.1 35.4 36.9 -2.1 -1.5 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.7 3.6 2.5 -1.7 25.3 30.4 4.0 6.0 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.8 3.6 2.0 -1.3 30.7 34.4 3.8 4.9 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.1 3.2 1.6 -1.8 25.3 28.7 3.8 5.2 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.5 3.6 1.7 -1.4 31.8 33.3 3.7 5.9 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.8 3.7 1.8 -1.2 33.8 35.3 3.6 5.1 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 2.9 2.0 2.8 -1.9 20.5 27.8 4.5 5.4 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 82 18 0 100 2.2 2.0 0.3 -2.5 17.5 21.8 2.8 4.7 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.7 3.8 1.3 -1.6 28.2 30.6 4.0 5.5 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 1.0 0.5 2.6 -2.0 19.2 24.9 2.3 3.7 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 4.7 2.7 2.4 -1.0 35.7 39.1 2.5 4.0 5.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 1.4 0.8 2.4 -2.5 15.7 20.9 2.8 4.3 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 2.4 1.3 1.3 -0.3 44.5 46.3 0.9 1.9 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.4 2.6 3.0 -1.7 22.7 29.5 3.6 5.5 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 83 17 0 100 1.6 1.2 2.3 -2.4 17.8 21.5 2.7 4.4 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 1.8 1.1 2.6 -2.5 15.9 21.1 2.9 4.5 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 3.5 3.5 2.9 -1.6 25.0 31.2 4.3 5.8 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.6 2.1 1.8 -1.5 26.6 31.9 2.3 4.2 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 5.3 4.2 1.9 -0.6 42.0 42.9 3.9 4.8 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 5.5 2.2 2.7 -1.4 26.3 32.9 3.0 4.5 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 2.9 2.6 0.1 -2.4 19.7 23.4 3.9 5.5 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.0 1.1 2.0 -0.7 38.7 41.4 0.8 2.3 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 1.2 0.5 2.5 -2.2 16.6 23.1 2.3 4.1 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------