***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 8.8 7.2 5.7 0.2 48.5 51.5 4.3 8.1 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.8 6.4 5.5 -0.1 45.4 49.9 3.8 6.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.7 7.2 6.1 0.1 47.7 50.9 5.1 7.7 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 2.1 0.3 2.4 -0.4 43.1 46.3 -1.1 1.4 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.1 7.3 4.1 0.1 47.8 50.4 5.9 7.3 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.3 6.8 3.4 0.6 52.1 54.3 4.7 6.7 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.3 6.1 5.6 0.0 47.4 50.4 3.4 6.4 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 0.0 -0.3 4.0 0.7 53.5 55.3 -1.7 -0.4 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.0 5.1 0.4 50.5 52.4 5.9 7.8 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.4 7.8 4.6 0.6 52.2 54.2 5.7 7.6 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.0 6.9 4.0 0.1 47.7 50.4 6.0 7.0 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 7.9 7.2 4.2 0.5 50.2 53.6 6.0 7.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 7.9 7.3 3.8 0.6 53.4 54.5 5.8 7.0 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.2 5.5 0.2 48.7 51.6 6.2 7.2 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.7 6.0 2.6 -0.8 39.8 43.4 4.3 7.0 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.2 7.1 3.6 0.1 48.4 50.5 6.5 7.3 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.2 6.2 5.5 -0.1 45.6 49.5 4.2 6.3 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.0 5.0 0.9 55.4 56.1 5.4 6.5 8.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.9 5.8 5.7 -0.1 44.7 49.8 4.2 7.3 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 4.5 5.0 3.3 1.3 60.2 60.6 2.3 4.0 5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.2 6.9 5.6 0.3 49.1 51.8 5.8 7.2 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.5 6.2 5.5 -0.2 44.1 48.4 4.7 7.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.3 6.3 6.0 0.0 45.1 50.0 4.5 7.2 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.6 5.6 0.4 50.5 52.7 6.0 7.6 10.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.4 6.6 4.0 0.2 49.1 51.0 4.5 6.6 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.3 8.2 4.0 1.0 57.0 58.1 5.8 6.7 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.8 6.8 5.2 0.3 50.3 52.1 5.4 6.8 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.5 6.1 2.5 -0.6 41.3 44.8 4.5 7.5 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.1 4.4 1.1 56.4 57.6 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.1 5.9 5.5 0.0 46.2 50.3 3.9 7.0 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------