***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-29.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 0.1 0.1 1.9 -2.1 25.7 32.6 0.5 2.2 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 0.2 0.1 1.4 -2.7 22.6 29.7 0.5 1.7 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 1.0 0.4 2.2 -2.2 27.0 33.0 0.8 3.3 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -3.2 -1.8 -0.4 -1.6 33.4 37.7 -1.9 -0.4 1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.3 1.2 1.4 -1.2 35.5 40.0 1.1 5.1 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.7 1.7 0.1 48.5 52.5 1.2 5.0 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 -0.5 0.0 2.0 -2.0 26.1 34.6 0.1 1.5 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.2 -0.7 2.1 0.0 47.1 50.4 -2.2 -0.4 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.0 2.1 2.4 -1.3 35.5 39.5 1.6 4.6 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.0 3.0 2.5 -0.4 44.5 47.8 1.2 3.9 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.2 2.0 1.8 -1.1 37.9 41.2 1.5 4.8 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.6 3.5 1.9 -0.6 42.7 45.3 1.4 4.4 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.9 3.0 2.0 -0.5 43.2 45.8 1.5 5.1 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 1.9 1.5 3.1 -1.0 41.1 42.7 0.8 4.4 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 0.4 0.9 -0.3 -2.8 23.8 30.0 2.1 4.1 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.3 2.8 1.4 -0.9 39.2 43.1 2.0 5.5 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 0.2 0.2 1.7 -2.2 26.7 33.5 0.3 1.6 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.6 2.9 3.0 0.3 50.8 53.0 1.0 2.9 5.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 -0.1 -0.2 1.3 -2.9 21.9 28.2 -0.1 1.6 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 2.6 3.5 2.1 0.9 57.1 59.0 -0.3 2.0 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 1.9 2.1 2.8 -1.4 35.0 38.7 1.8 4.3 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 0.5 0.4 1.5 -2.5 25.6 31.1 0.8 1.7 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 0.4 0.2 1.7 -2.7 25.4 30.2 0.4 2.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.0 2.0 3.3 -0.7 42.4 44.9 1.6 4.2 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 1.1 0.6 1.4 -1.3 33.8 38.6 0.6 3.2 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 5.8 3.9 1.7 -0.2 42.6 47.4 1.8 5.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 0.7 0.6 2.1 -1.4 30.4 37.4 0.7 3.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 1.6 1.8 0.0 -1.9 31.9 36.8 1.9 4.1 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.8 2.3 2.7 0.5 52.5 54.6 -0.8 2.2 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 -0.3 -0.6 1.4 -2.7 22.6 29.5 0.2 1.8 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------