***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 -3.9 -7.6 -7.7 -5.2 1.6 11.6 -3.1 -1.6 -1.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 93 7 0 100 -6.3 -10.8 -7.9 -5.4 2.2 9.2 -3.8 -2.7 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 90 10 0 100 -3.4 -6.1 -7.4 -5.2 1.5 9.5 -1.9 -0.7 0.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 -9.6 -11.9 -8.7 -3.9 9.6 15.1 -6.9 -6.2 -4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 85 15 0 100 -5.4 -7.6 -8.0 -4.2 10.5 16.3 -4.4 -3.5 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 -5.6 -6.0 -9.6 -2.9 22.7 27.6 -5.7 -3.6 -2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 -6.2 -9.6 -7.1 -4.5 4.6 12.2 -4.1 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -9.2 -9.7 -8.9 -2.7 26.2 29.0 -8.6 -7.5 -5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 -4.8 -8.4 -8.4 -4.5 5.4 13.1 -3.0 -1.9 -0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 -4.9 -5.1 -8.9 -3.5 17.7 22.1 -3.8 -2.9 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 -5.3 -6.1 -8.5 -4.0 13.4 18.1 -4.3 -3.1 -1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 -6.4 -7.0 -8.9 -3.5 19.4 23.2 -5.3 -4.0 -2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 87 13 0 100 -5.5 -5.7 -9.6 -4.3 15.9 17.7 -4.9 -3.7 -2.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 93 7 0 100 -4.6 -7.2 -9.1 -4.9 6.2 10.5 -2.8 -1.9 -1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 82 18 0 100 -5.5 -7.2 -7.2 -3.7 6.7 16.2 -4.0 -2.0 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 92 8 0 100 -4.8 -6.0 -9.7 -4.6 12.1 15.1 -3.5 -2.7 -1.4 30 Nis 06700G01 94 6 0 100 -7.6 -9.7 -8.1 -5.3 2.4 8.4 -4.3 -2.9 -2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 81 19 0 100 -6.8 -8.3 -9.6 -3.9 13.6 18.4 -6.0 -5.1 -3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 93 7 0 100 -6.4 -9.4 -8.1 -5.6 1.5 8.5 -3.4 -2.6 -1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 -10.1 -11.1 -10.0 -2.9 25.8 29.8 -9.7 -7.7 -6.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 89 11 0 100 -4.9 -9.1 -7.7 -4.9 2.7 11.2 -3.6 -2.8 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 97 3 0 100 -7.1 -10.2 -8.4 -5.9 2.0 6.6 -3.8 -2.8 -2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 90 10 0 100 -5.2 -9.4 -8.2 -5.4 1.6 8.4 -4.3 -2.2 -1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 90 10 0 100 -5.1 -8.2 -8.9 -4.8 5.6 10.6 -4.1 -3.2 -2.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 -4.1 -6.6 -7.3 -4.2 8.5 18.5 -3.7 -2.0 -1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 -5.5 -5.6 -8.2 -2.8 24.3 29.0 -4.9 -3.1 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 -4.8 -8.9 -7.8 -4.9 3.6 14.4 -3.7 -2.6 -1.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 88 12 0 100 -6.9 -10.0 -8.7 -4.3 6.7 13.1 -4.7 -3.0 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 -7.3 -7.1 -10.1 -3.2 22.5 25.8 -6.2 -5.8 -4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 91 9 0 100 -6.0 -10.8 -7.7 -5.3 1.8 9.6 -3.4 -2.3 -1.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------