***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 45.9 121.9 69.3 64.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 27.9 35.8 43.5 118.4 67.6 62.8 14.4 24.8 34.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 48.6 54.1 46.5 121.1 70.2 63.6 25.2 35.6 48.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 49.3 54.4 54.0 119.7 65.4 61.5 32.9 45.1 54.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 45.3 44.2 51.9 116.7 64.9 60.7 31.2 42.7 44.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 37.2 36.3 52.9 115.5 63.7 59.7 27.9 34.1 37.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 27.3 32.4 43.3 120.0 66.8 63.5 19.9 25.1 32.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 66.4 72.5 58.4 119.0 67.3 62.3 41.2 61.2 71.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 30.8 33.7 52.6 119.9 66.1 62.9 23.3 27.9 33.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 37.5 40.9 56.9 119.7 66.5 62.8 28.7 33.6 39.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 35.2 42.2 51.2 118.4 66.0 61.2 23.3 30.2 42.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 41.4 43.6 51.7 118.2 66.9 61.5 20.2 37.6 42.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 40.3 47.7 52.3 115.0 64.2 59.5 23.1 34.3 48.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 53.4 60.7 53.6 114.3 62.8 61.1 35.2 50.1 63.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 34.2 41.9 52.2 119.9 65.5 60.9 16.9 29.0 42.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 34.8 36.3 51.4 117.8 66.0 60.9 20.9 29.5 36.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 29.0 36.0 41.4 117.7 64.3 62.6 18.6 26.8 36.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 38.6 42.3 62.6 119.5 64.7 63.1 24.5 33.7 43.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 32.6 43.0 44.0 117.0 68.4 62.1 20.8 29.1 42.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 48.1 51.1 78.1 121.4 67.6 64.4 26.3 35.7 49.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 42.7 43.0 49.4 121.4 70.7 63.2 25.3 32.5 40.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 30.2 35.2 42.9 115.7 64.1 61.6 18.9 27.4 36.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 40.2 42.5 45.8 115.6 68.6 61.7 17.2 30.6 41.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 46.9 53.0 54.4 119.0 65.7 63.1 36.0 44.1 53.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 35.7 38.3 52.6 119.1 64.4 61.8 27.1 32.3 38.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 33.5 46.4 54.8 115.4 66.4 59.5 17.3 28.6 46.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 32.5 43.5 49.6 120.8 67.8 63.6 21.1 27.4 41.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 35.1 40.1 51.7 118.5 64.7 60.8 17.3 29.9 40.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 62.6 71.7 68.3 119.5 67.2 63.3 43.2 57.6 68.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 29.5 36.9 44.2 119.4 70.2 63.1 17.5 26.8 35.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------