***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 9.7 92.7 55.3 51.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.9 10.4 101.3 60.9 55.0 1.5 2.8 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.9 9.6 91.0 53.3 49.4 2.6 6.4 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.7 9.9 10.2 82.0 53.4 47.7 3.9 8.6 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.3 8.6 10.0 81.8 47.6 46.6 3.1 9.5 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.1 8.1 11.0 81.8 52.7 45.4 3.5 6.7 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.1 6.0 10.2 102.4 61.4 55.0 2.2 4.0 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 16.8 16.5 11.5 85.5 54.8 48.0 7.2 14.8 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.3 5.6 10.0 82.6 49.2 46.3 2.7 6.1 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.8 6.8 11.1 84.4 52.1 47.0 3.8 6.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.6 6.5 9.6 81.1 49.8 46.1 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.3 4.6 9.8 81.6 50.9 46.1 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.8 7.9 10.5 81.1 51.6 45.0 3.6 7.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.4 12.8 11.6 90.2 52.7 47.5 6.5 11.5 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.4 9.6 79.5 56.2 47.6 0.6 4.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.2 6.9 9.9 80.4 52.3 45.3 2.6 6.7 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.8 10.5 10.1 103.7 65.6 56.3 2.3 6.2 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.2 7.5 12.5 86.6 52.7 46.9 3.0 6.9 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.9 10.3 98.7 59.7 53.9 2.9 5.1 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.4 16.7 94.5 59.8 51.0 4.3 7.7 9.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.5 7.4 9.6 85.4 51.6 47.7 3.4 6.9 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.6 10.3 101.9 63.3 56.6 2.6 5.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.8 6.6 10.2 94.8 57.3 51.1 1.7 5.3 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.2 8.9 10.8 86.1 50.0 46.0 4.2 8.9 15.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 7.2 6.3 11.1 91.3 55.2 50.7 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.2 5.7 11.2 83.7 54.1 46.9 1.6 4.3 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.8 7.9 10.8 95.2 56.0 52.4 4.2 6.8 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 8.3 5.7 9.7 79.1 54.4 46.2 0.5 5.3 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.3 14.0 14.1 90.3 56.6 48.3 7.4 13.3 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.2 10.2 98.9 57.7 53.3 2.2 4.4 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------