***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2012.-05.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 10.6 96.1 59.1 50.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 3.1 3.3 10.2 96.2 59.0 51.4 0.8 2.6 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.0 10.7 95.4 56.8 50.3 1.2 2.3 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.2 12.4 100.3 60.2 52.3 5.8 7.2 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.5 12.4 100.9 57.5 51.9 5.4 7.9 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.4 12.3 102.4 59.2 52.4 2.5 6.3 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.0 3.5 10.2 97.5 54.9 51.2 1.5 3.3 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.6 15.0 104.9 63.3 53.7 7.6 12.2 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.0 3.9 12.3 100.0 56.7 51.4 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.5 14.0 101.3 60.4 52.0 2.7 6.1 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.7 12.5 102.4 61.2 52.8 3.6 6.0 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.7 6.6 13.1 106.6 64.5 54.7 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.5 9.0 12.9 106.0 62.2 53.8 3.5 7.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 6.9 5.4 13.1 93.5 53.6 49.4 3.2 5.0 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.1 6.1 12.0 104.8 65.4 54.6 0.3 1.5 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.4 12.4 103.7 60.8 53.0 4.5 6.4 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.4 4.2 10.1 100.4 59.2 51.5 0.8 2.5 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 6.8 7.3 15.8 99.7 58.9 50.9 2.9 5.3 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 3.7 4.0 10.2 93.8 58.1 50.9 0.7 2.4 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.7 21.3 105.5 59.2 52.5 2.5 4.8 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.7 11.1 96.6 58.0 50.5 3.3 4.4 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 4.0 3.8 10.3 96.4 58.3 51.1 0.5 3.1 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 3.2 2.4 10.5 90.9 53.9 49.8 0.8 2.0 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 8.2 7.3 13.2 97.0 56.5 50.4 3.5 6.0 8.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.5 7.9 12.1 94.2 56.5 50.0 2.3 7.1 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 7.2 9.7 14.2 113.9 66.2 57.6 3.3 6.1 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.1 4.7 11.4 95.1 56.4 50.3 0.6 4.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 3.6 4.6 12.0 102.6 61.8 53.5 0.9 2.0 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.9 17.7 99.7 58.0 51.0 4.1 10.4 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 3.7 3.6 10.3 95.1 57.0 51.0 1.1 2.9 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------