***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2012.-29.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 11.6 135.4 70.3 63.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 8.0 10.2 11.0 123.2 65.8 59.2 2.3 6.3 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 9.2 15.6 11.6 130.5 69.2 62.4 3.9 7.4 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 9.5 13.4 13.5 123.9 70.5 62.2 2.6 8.5 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 9.2 10.4 12.4 116.5 66.4 59.7 4.2 8.1 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.7 10.0 12.6 107.0 63.5 57.4 4.4 7.8 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 7.0 10.6 11.0 125.7 65.7 59.4 1.3 5.6 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 13.1 17.5 12.5 108.2 64.7 58.3 5.0 11.3 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 7.6 9.4 12.4 119.5 66.9 60.0 1.8 6.3 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 8.5 10.7 12.5 113.3 64.0 58.8 2.5 6.8 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 7.1 9.3 11.5 110.9 64.2 59.1 2.1 5.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 6.1 9.4 11.2 104.7 64.5 58.1 2.0 3.9 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 10.7 12.2 11.8 103.3 63.7 57.7 4.5 9.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 14.7 17.1 12.7 117.0 63.2 59.5 2.5 11.9 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 9.4 12.8 14.8 134.0 77.1 63.7 1.0 3.4 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 7.8 8.4 12.0 110.6 64.8 59.3 3.5 6.1 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 7.3 9.2 10.1 114.1 63.2 56.7 0.7 5.7 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 7.8 12.2 14.0 117.6 64.8 59.7 2.6 6.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 10.9 10.9 11.0 122.1 66.4 59.4 2.1 9.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 9.0 14.7 17.6 119.0 64.6 60.4 3.3 5.9 16.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 8.3 14.6 12.1 127.4 68.6 62.0 3.1 5.9 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.0 11.6 10.5 113.3 65.9 57.2 0.9 7.6 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 8.7 14.4 11.4 121.3 66.6 59.7 1.0 7.1 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 9.8 17.8 12.8 122.5 67.2 61.1 2.8 7.7 17.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 10.7 14.0 13.3 132.2 69.2 63.3 4.1 9.4 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 10.1 9.4 12.3 98.8 60.7 57.0 3.2 7.8 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 8.1 11.5 12.4 131.8 68.0 62.4 3.2 5.9 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.6 9.8 13.4 121.7 71.6 61.2 1.0 4.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 15.1 21.4 15.5 118.7 64.1 59.7 3.7 12.4 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 9.2 11.4 11.2 127.6 67.7 60.7 2.2 7.0 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------