***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2012.-22.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 9999.0 0.0 14.0 184.1 81.5 73.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 8.1 11.5 11.9 171.3 80.8 71.4 0.3 2.3 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 10.3 17.4 14.7 188.6 81.8 74.1 0.9 5.3 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 13.8 23.2 17.8 190.8 84.1 73.1 5.6 8.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 13.5 20.4 17.0 184.8 83.7 72.4 1.4 5.3 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 9.4 12.1 16.9 199.2 82.8 76.3 1.0 4.3 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 7.1 11.4 11.8 172.8 82.5 71.4 0.5 2.1 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 14.2 22.6 19.3 198.3 86.4 75.6 4.9 10.3 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 9.0 12.6 17.9 197.4 87.1 75.8 1.1 4.8 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 10.9 18.2 19.3 201.6 87.4 76.6 1.3 4.7 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 9.8 18.5 17.5 200.4 87.3 75.7 2.3 5.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 8.2 14.2 17.6 201.3 86.5 75.7 1.8 4.9 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 8.9 11.1 17.1 191.4 84.2 75.3 2.5 6.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 13.3 18.8 16.3 175.6 81.1 73.8 2.9 6.3 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 9.8 13.1 15.8 176.6 80.2 70.5 2.1 4.3 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 8.9 14.6 17.1 200.0 86.5 76.1 1.3 3.6 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 5.9 8.4 11.1 170.2 79.2 71.0 0.8 1.6 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 9.0 13.1 20.2 198.7 85.6 76.8 2.3 5.3 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 11.4 16.1 12.5 171.4 80.5 71.9 0.5 3.5 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 8.0 12.6 22.5 191.0 85.1 75.6 3.2 4.6 6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 11.0 16.9 16.6 196.6 86.0 75.2 1.9 4.1 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 8.9 11.6 11.8 168.6 77.9 71.5 0.5 2.8 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 10.6 14.8 13.7 174.0 81.1 73.0 0.4 4.4 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 13.5 19.3 17.6 192.6 83.1 75.7 1.9 5.5 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 9.8 13.2 16.1 177.0 79.4 71.2 0.8 4.2 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 5.5 7.3 17.1 187.1 80.9 73.2 1.1 2.8 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 6.7 9.7 15.0 180.8 81.5 72.8 0.3 3.3 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 8.4 13.3 16.6 191.0 83.0 73.2 1.4 4.6 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 16.7 33.1 20.9 194.7 86.5 76.4 3.7 7.4 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 9.0 12.4 12.6 174.9 80.5 71.8 0.5 3.1 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------