***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.1 -1.6 19.6 34.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 1.9 0.7 2.9 -1.6 19.9 35.9 2.5 4.0 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 2.7 1.7 3.4 -1.6 20.4 34.8 3.6 5.0 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 -2.2 -2.4 1.2 -1.7 23.9 32.7 -1.5 -0.1 1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 2.6 2.4 1.8 -1.8 20.2 31.9 3.6 5.0 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 2.4 1.9 0.2 -2.0 16.6 27.0 3.2 4.4 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 1.2 0.2 2.8 -1.5 20.8 35.9 2.0 3.7 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 -2.7 -2.9 0.9 -2.1 17.8 26.8 -2.1 -1.5 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 3.3 3.5 2.7 -1.6 23.8 33.7 4.0 6.0 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 2.7 1.9 1.6 -1.9 20.3 29.7 3.8 4.9 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 2.8 2.1 1.9 -1.8 19.2 30.9 3.8 5.2 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 3.4 2.5 1.5 -2.0 17.5 27.7 3.7 5.9 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 2.8 2.2 1.1 -2.1 17.1 26.6 3.6 5.1 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 3.1 2.0 2.8 -1.8 20.0 32.7 4.5 5.4 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.9 2.5 1.8 -1.3 28.1 36.9 2.8 4.7 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 3.3 2.4 1.4 -1.9 18.7 29.7 4.0 5.5 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 1.5 0.8 2.6 -1.5 21.9 36.0 2.3 3.7 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 2.1 1.6 1.1 -2.1 18.6 27.4 2.5 4.0 5.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.1 0.9 3.1 -1.6 20.7 35.8 2.8 4.3 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 84 16 0 100 -0.2 -0.9 -1.0 -2.4 14.4 21.3 0.9 1.9 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 3.3 2.7 3.1 -1.6 23.3 34.1 3.6 5.5 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 2.2 1.5 2.9 -1.5 23.3 36.5 2.7 4.4 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 2.4 1.7 3.4 -1.6 21.2 35.4 2.9 4.5 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 3.2 2.4 2.6 -1.8 20.4 31.7 4.3 5.8 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 2.2 1.7 1.7 -1.7 20.3 32.5 2.3 4.2 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 3.1 2.5 0.7 -2.3 13.9 22.2 3.9 4.8 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 2.3 1.6 2.4 -1.6 19.2 33.4 3.0 4.5 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 3.3 2.9 1.5 -1.6 24.4 33.9 3.9 5.5 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 0.3 -0.2 0.3 -2.2 17.0 25.4 0.8 2.3 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 1.9 0.6 3.1 -1.6 19.9 35.5 2.3 4.1 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------