***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.0 0.7 58.0 54.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.6 7.6 5.7 0.5 56.5 53.4 3.8 6.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.6 8.9 6.3 0.7 57.3 54.4 5.1 7.7 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -1.6 1.9 4.2 0.5 57.7 52.8 -1.1 1.4 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.9 4.9 0.6 57.7 53.8 5.9 7.3 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.0 3.2 0.5 56.0 53.9 4.7 6.7 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.1 7.6 5.5 0.6 58.2 53.5 3.4 6.4 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.0 -0.3 3.8 0.3 55.2 53.5 -1.7 -0.4 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.8 5.6 0.7 57.3 54.9 5.9 7.8 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.1 4.6 0.5 55.7 54.1 5.7 7.6 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.6 4.8 0.5 56.3 54.0 6.0 7.0 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.0 4.5 0.4 55.7 53.9 6.0 7.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 7.9 7.6 3.9 0.4 56.5 53.5 5.8 7.0 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 8.5 8.4 5.7 0.7 58.4 55.6 6.2 7.2 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 3.2 7.1 4.3 0.6 56.0 53.2 4.3 7.0 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.2 7.8 4.3 0.4 56.1 53.4 6.5 7.3 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.0 6.9 5.3 0.5 56.2 53.4 4.2 6.3 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.0 4.0 0.4 54.1 53.9 5.4 6.5 8.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.6 7.6 5.9 0.6 56.6 53.7 4.2 7.3 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.5 4.2 1.6 0.0 51.8 52.0 2.3 4.0 5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.8 8.7 6.0 0.7 57.2 54.7 5.8 7.2 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.4 7.7 5.7 0.6 57.9 54.2 4.7 7.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.2 8.0 6.2 0.7 56.7 54.4 4.5 7.2 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 8.7 8.3 5.5 0.7 56.1 55.0 6.0 7.6 10.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.7 7.3 4.6 0.6 56.1 53.9 4.5 6.6 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.4 8.2 3.7 0.2 55.5 52.7 5.8 6.7 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.4 8.4 5.2 0.6 55.8 53.9 5.4 6.8 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.9 8.6 4.4 0.5 57.0 52.9 4.5 7.5 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 4.4 3.9 3.0 0.3 54.3 53.2 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.9 7.9 5.8 0.6 57.1 53.4 3.9 7.0 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------