***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2012.-05.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.3 -0.5 50.8 48.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.8 2.6 4.1 -0.6 43.3 47.8 2.2 4.8 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.7 5.2 4.6 -0.5 49.9 47.8 2.8 5.3 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -3.1 -1.4 2.4 -0.6 45.4 46.5 -2.6 -1.0 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.9 4.3 3.2 -0.4 49.5 47.5 3.0 4.4 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.3 3.5 1.9 -0.1 48.9 49.5 2.5 3.6 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.4 3.0 3.9 -0.5 44.0 48.2 1.9 4.0 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.5 -1.1 2.6 -0.1 48.8 49.1 -3.3 -0.9 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.3 5.6 4.0 -0.3 50.2 48.0 3.5 5.5 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.2 5.4 3.2 -0.2 50.0 48.8 3.6 5.4 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.0 4.6 3.4 -0.2 50.1 48.6 3.7 4.6 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.4 4.8 3.2 -0.2 48.5 48.8 3.7 5.1 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.2 5.1 2.7 -0.2 48.8 48.3 3.6 5.3 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 7.3 6.1 4.3 -0.2 50.6 48.9 4.4 6.1 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.7 4.6 2.4 -0.6 46.3 46.3 3.4 4.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.3 4.7 2.9 -0.3 49.7 48.5 3.9 4.7 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.1 2.4 3.8 -0.5 42.7 48.4 1.9 5.0 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.6 2.9 -0.1 51.2 49.3 3.0 4.5 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.2 3.4 4.3 -0.5 45.1 47.6 2.0 5.2 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.4 1.8 1.0 0.0 49.6 49.7 0.9 1.8 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.8 5.1 4.3 -0.4 49.7 47.7 3.2 5.1 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.2 3.4 4.1 -0.5 45.5 47.6 2.2 5.4 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.7 4.9 4.7 -0.4 48.8 47.8 2.7 5.1 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.6 6.1 4.1 -0.2 50.9 48.8 4.2 5.7 8.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 1.8 3.6 2.9 -0.4 48.7 47.7 2.0 3.7 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.8 4.6 2.5 -0.3 48.1 47.5 3.5 5.0 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.6 4.0 3.6 -0.4 49.5 48.4 2.7 4.0 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.2 5.3 2.6 -0.6 46.1 46.5 4.5 5.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.9 2.6 2.2 0.0 51.3 50.1 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.0 3.4 4.2 -0.5 46.1 47.7 2.1 4.7 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------