***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2012.-29.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 0.0 2.6 -2.0 30.0 36.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 0.4 0.2 2.1 -2.3 25.0 35.5 0.5 1.7 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 1.2 0.6 2.8 -2.2 30.7 35.6 0.8 3.3 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -3.5 -1.3 1.0 -1.8 35.4 35.8 -1.9 -0.4 1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 2.0 1.2 1.6 -1.9 34.1 36.0 1.1 5.1 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.0 2.2 0.4 -1.6 37.7 38.8 1.2 5.0 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 -0.2 0.0 2.1 -2.2 25.5 36.1 0.1 1.5 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -3.7 -2.2 1.1 -1.7 31.9 36.8 -2.2 -0.4 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 1.7 1.9 2.3 -1.8 34.6 36.7 1.6 4.6 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 1.6 1.2 1.6 -1.8 32.0 36.7 1.2 3.9 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 1.8 1.7 1.8 -1.7 34.1 36.9 1.5 4.8 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 1.3 1.5 1.7 -1.7 33.4 37.1 1.4 4.4 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.2 2.2 1.1 -1.7 34.4 37.1 1.5 5.1 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 1.9 0.6 2.4 -2.1 29.6 35.6 0.8 4.4 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 0.1 2.3 1.2 -1.5 34.0 37.7 2.1 4.1 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.2 2.3 1.3 -1.7 33.9 37.2 2.0 5.5 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 0.4 0.1 1.9 -2.2 24.6 35.7 0.3 1.6 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 1.1 1.0 1.2 -1.9 30.3 36.5 1.0 2.9 5.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 0.2 -0.2 2.4 -2.3 26.2 35.2 -0.1 1.6 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -1.1 -1.2 -0.6 -1.8 30.8 36.2 -0.3 2.0 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 1.8 1.8 2.6 -2.0 33.1 36.1 1.8 4.3 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 0.7 0.3 2.1 -2.3 23.5 35.3 0.8 1.7 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 0.7 0.3 2.7 -2.3 29.6 35.1 0.4 2.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 1.7 1.2 2.3 -2.0 29.8 36.1 1.6 4.2 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 1.1 0.6 1.3 -1.9 31.2 35.7 0.6 3.2 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.3 1.7 1.0 -1.8 31.6 36.4 1.8 5.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 1.0 0.6 1.9 -2.0 29.7 36.1 0.7 3.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 1.4 2.0 1.2 -1.7 34.8 36.8 1.9 4.1 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 -1.1 -1.8 0.6 -1.8 30.2 36.5 -0.8 2.2 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 0.1 -0.3 2.3 -2.2 26.1 35.6 0.2 1.8 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------