***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -3.1 -1.1 24.1 38.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 -5.1 -6.0 -3.3 -1.2 22.9 37.4 -5.2 -2.9 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 -2.5 -3.0 -3.4 -1.2 20.4 36.3 -2.0 -0.9 -0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 -8.4 -8.6 -5.8 -1.5 21.2 31.4 -7.3 -6.1 -4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 -4.7 -5.3 -5.4 -1.5 19.4 32.1 -4.4 -3.3 -2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 85 15 0 100 -5.7 -6.0 -7.9 -2.1 15.5 22.6 -5.5 -4.4 -3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 -4.9 -5.5 -3.3 -1.1 24.1 38.2 -4.7 -2.4 -1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -9.3 -9.8 -6.8 -1.8 16.9 27.9 -8.8 -8.1 -7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 -3.6 -4.1 -4.5 -1.1 27.1 37.5 -3.3 -2.3 -1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 -4.0 -4.6 -6.0 -1.5 22.4 32.3 -4.1 -2.8 -1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 -4.9 -5.8 -5.7 -1.7 16.3 30.2 -4.2 -3.3 -2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 -5.1 -5.8 -6.0 -1.9 14.4 28.3 -5.3 -4.1 -2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 -5.2 -5.9 -6.6 -2.0 14.8 25.6 -4.2 -3.2 -2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 -3.1 -3.8 -4.6 -1.4 20.9 34.3 -3.1 -1.7 -1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 -4.7 -3.8 -4.9 -0.9 30.4 39.7 -3.6 -2.5 -1.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 -3.8 -4.3 -6.2 -1.7 17.5 29.4 -3.9 -2.6 -1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 -4.8 -5.6 -3.4 -1.1 24.5 38.7 -4.9 -2.8 -1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 -5.9 -6.2 -6.7 -1.5 24.1 31.0 -6.0 -4.5 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 -4.8 -5.1 -3.3 -1.2 22.0 37.1 -4.8 -2.7 -1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 -9.4 -9.9 -8.0 -1.4 23.8 32.3 -9.1 -7.6 -6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 -4.1 -4.4 -3.7 -1.1 25.4 37.8 -3.7 -2.8 -1.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 -5.0 -5.3 -3.2 -1.0 24.2 39.4 -5.0 -2.6 -1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 -4.1 -4.5 -3.5 -1.2 21.2 36.7 -4.1 -2.7 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 -4.1 -4.7 -5.1 -1.5 21.2 32.1 -3.9 -3.0 -1.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 -4.7 -4.4 -5.0 -1.5 22.1 31.7 -4.1 -3.3 -1.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 -4.8 -5.3 -6.6 -2.2 12.6 21.3 -4.5 -3.4 -2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 -4.5 -5.2 -4.0 -1.3 23.4 35.4 -4.0 -3.0 -1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 -5.9 -5.3 -5.5 -1.3 24.7 34.4 -4.7 -3.8 -2.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 -6.6 -7.0 -7.4 -1.5 23.5 31.0 -6.0 -5.5 -4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 -4.7 -5.3 -3.2 -1.2 22.9 37.2 -4.7 -2.5 -1.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------