***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 -0.9 0.8 54.0 55.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 -3.9 -0.6 -1.3 0.6 55.2 53.9 -3.5 -1.6 0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 -1.9 0.9 -1.2 0.7 52.9 53.9 -1.7 0.4 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -7.8 -4.7 -3.4 0.6 50.7 52.2 -6.6 -4.9 -3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 -4.0 -1.8 -3.0 0.7 52.9 52.6 -3.5 -2.0 -0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -4.5 -2.7 -5.0 0.6 51.3 53.7 -3.9 -2.8 -1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 -3.7 -1.1 -1.2 0.7 55.4 54.2 -3.1 -1.5 0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -8.7 -6.9 -4.0 0.7 50.0 54.6 -8.1 -6.9 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 -3.3 -1.6 -2.3 0.7 52.6 53.5 -2.5 -1.9 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 -3.1 -1.5 -3.4 0.7 51.8 54.1 -3.1 -1.6 0.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 -3.6 -1.8 -3.2 0.6 52.6 52.8 -3.3 -1.9 -0.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 -4.7 -2.7 -3.3 0.6 50.3 53.8 -3.9 -2.8 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 -3.9 -2.3 -3.8 0.6 50.6 54.1 -3.9 -2.4 -1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 -2.5 -1.5 -2.6 0.7 47.0 53.5 -2.5 -1.3 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 -3.1 -1.2 -3.3 0.5 47.0 53.1 -3.1 -0.9 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 -3.2 -1.4 -3.7 0.6 50.5 53.1 -3.0 -1.4 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 -3.4 -0.9 -1.4 0.6 52.9 54.0 -3.5 -1.1 -0.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 -5.0 -3.4 -4.0 0.7 50.1 53.9 -4.5 -3.4 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 -3.8 -1.5 -1.4 0.6 53.9 53.9 -3.5 -1.9 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -8.0 -6.2 -5.4 0.8 50.6 55.5 -8.1 -6.2 -4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 -3.4 -1.8 -1.6 0.8 52.8 53.9 -3.1 -2.0 0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 -3.8 -1.3 -1.4 0.5 52.6 54.3 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 -3.8 -2.2 -1.6 0.6 49.8 53.8 -3.4 -2.2 -0.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 -3.4 -2.1 -2.7 0.7 50.0 53.6 -3.5 -2.1 0.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 -3.8 -1.1 -2.6 0.7 54.7 53.7 -3.1 -1.6 0.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 -3.6 -2.3 -3.6 0.5 47.4 54.4 -3.1 -2.1 -1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 -3.6 -0.4 -1.7 0.8 54.8 54.8 -3.5 -0.8 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 -4.5 -2.3 -3.4 0.5 48.9 52.7 -4.4 -2.2 -0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -5.5 -3.9 -4.7 0.7 48.2 53.6 -5.6 -3.7 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 -3.9 -1.0 -1.2 0.7 55.3 54.1 -3.0 -1.7 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------