***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.01.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2012.-29.01.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -4.0 -1.9 22.1 38.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 -6.3 -7.4 -4.2 -2.1 20.3 36.3 -4.6 -2.7 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 -3.2 -4.3 -4.2 -2.1 19.4 36.8 -3.2 -0.9 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 -9.5 -9.5 -6.3 -1.8 26.0 36.8 -8.8 -6.0 -4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 -4.9 -5.6 -6.0 -1.9 24.1 37.7 -4.0 -2.5 -0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 -6.0 -4.8 -7.5 -1.5 35.6 38.2 -5.0 -3.5 -2.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 -6.3 -6.6 -4.1 -2.0 20.4 37.0 -4.8 -2.4 -0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 -10.9 -10.7 -6.4 -1.5 27.7 42.1 -9.4 -7.1 -6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 -4.5 -4.9 -5.4 -1.8 26.1 39.2 -4.0 -1.8 0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 -4.4 -4.3 -6.1 -1.6 28.9 41.2 -3.8 -2.1 -1.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 -5.1 -6.0 -6.0 -1.8 22.7 38.7 -3.4 -2.3 -0.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 -5.3 -6.0 -5.9 -1.7 24.2 40.2 -4.7 -3.2 -0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 -4.6 -4.6 -6.4 -1.7 28.1 38.7 -3.5 -2.2 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 -4.2 -4.2 -5.4 -2.2 21.5 35.6 -3.7 -1.7 -0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 -5.1 -4.8 -5.7 -1.3 32.0 40.2 -4.7 -2.9 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 -4.3 -4.5 -6.4 -1.8 24.9 37.9 -3.1 -1.8 0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 -5.8 -6.5 -4.1 -1.9 23.6 37.2 -4.4 -2.7 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 -6.2 -4.8 -6.5 -1.4 32.6 41.6 -4.8 -4.4 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 -5.8 -6.4 -4.2 -2.2 19.4 35.8 -4.6 -2.4 -0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -9.8 -8.6 -7.3 -0.8 38.8 46.6 -9.0 -6.9 -5.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 -5.1 -5.1 -4.6 -1.9 23.1 38.5 -4.0 -2.4 0.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 -5.8 -6.8 -4.1 -1.9 20.9 36.8 -5.0 -2.8 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 -4.9 -5.4 -4.5 -2.2 18.5 35.0 -4.0 -2.3 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 -4.4 -4.9 -5.5 -2.0 24.3 37.4 -4.5 -2.4 -1.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 -5.9 -5.1 -5.7 -1.9 24.6 36.6 -4.1 -3.2 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 -4.8 -4.9 -5.9 -1.6 30.5 39.6 -4.3 -2.9 -1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 -5.8 -5.8 -4.8 -1.9 24.3 37.1 -4.9 -2.4 0.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 -6.0 -5.9 -6.1 -1.6 27.0 37.6 -5.9 -3.7 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 -7.9 -7.3 -6.9 -1.2 34.7 42.9 -7.4 -4.9 -3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 -6.0 -7.1 -4.1 -2.1 18.8 36.3 -4.6 -2.5 -0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------