***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-11.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 34.2 36.7 52.2 130.2 74.1 66.6 17.4 23.9 31.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 35.7 40.7 46.8 138.1 77.8 68.3 14.4 24.3 33.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 48.0 53.0 51.6 129.6 74.2 65.5 26.5 34.1 43.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 47.4 56.2 56.5 120.5 66.1 61.6 29.7 42.2 56.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 47.1 45.5 59.9 127.9 73.2 65.7 31.9 39.8 43.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 42.3 47.5 59.5 133.2 77.8 67.5 25.1 31.9 38.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 32.2 35.9 45.6 137.5 78.9 68.8 16.8 24.5 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 75.6 76.8 63.1 125.9 74.9 65.4 39.4 60.4 69.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 33.9 35.1 57.9 122.1 70.4 62.9 21.4 27.9 31.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 47.9 45.8 61.8 121.6 72.0 63.5 28.6 32.5 36.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 46.2 51.4 58.5 127.3 74.7 65.7 22.8 33.0 40.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 49.3 53.3 57.5 127.3 74.9 65.2 19.8 32.9 41.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 53.5 61.3 63.2 130.0 75.4 66.8 23.4 33.8 52.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 63.5 65.9 64.1 127.5 73.3 64.6 36.5 52.1 62.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 36.4 38.3 48.1 111.1 62.5 55.7 16.9 28.0 42.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 41.5 44.2 59.9 131.5 76.9 67.5 20.9 30.4 40.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 34.1 38.4 45.0 139.2 79.0 70.5 15.7 25.7 36.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 46.8 43.4 66.0 124.0 73.9 66.0 25.2 35.8 42.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 41.5 46.6 48.5 137.0 77.0 67.6 19.3 28.9 43.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 46.9 53.7 83.7 129.2 76.0 68.8 28.6 33.2 47.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 42.8 41.1 55.9 125.7 72.8 64.7 24.9 30.7 39.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 40.8 46.1 48.1 139.9 79.9 70.8 15.2 30.6 34.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 41.6 43.9 52.0 134.5 75.2 66.5 16.5 30.6 36.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 53.4 53.1 59.6 124.4 73.4 64.4 35.2 44.1 50.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 43.9 43.0 60.5 128.5 73.8 67.1 27.3 33.2 39.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 40.3 46.6 60.3 130.8 73.7 65.3 16.2 28.2 39.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 40.5 45.4 55.2 129.5 74.4 67.2 21.9 27.3 41.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 32.4 39.6 52.5 119.2 66.9 60.2 17.4 25.4 39.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 72.7 79.8 71.5 125.8 75.7 67.2 42.7 59.0 66.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 36.8 42.2 47.7 135.3 76.8 66.9 18.3 26.4 33.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------