***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-11.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 6.0 8.7 13.0 140.0 72.0 57.1 0.9 4.6 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.5 8.6 10.5 136.4 74.0 55.3 1.6 3.8 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.2 12.7 12.7 139.7 71.6 56.4 2.0 6.4 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.6 19.3 14.7 135.2 72.1 54.9 3.9 8.6 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.8 14.4 14.4 130.7 69.2 54.4 3.0 9.9 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.6 9.8 12.5 112.0 64.1 49.8 3.2 7.5 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.7 8.6 10.2 132.6 72.7 55.5 2.8 4.7 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.1 21.0 14.8 123.1 69.7 52.5 6.1 10.4 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 7.2 9.7 14.6 125.5 68.6 53.9 3.1 5.7 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.8 12.6 14.9 120.2 67.5 52.6 4.1 6.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.8 10.4 13.6 125.8 69.5 52.9 4.7 7.6 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.3 8.4 13.3 123.9 70.4 52.0 2.3 5.2 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.6 11.4 13.3 114.7 65.6 50.8 4.2 7.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.7 15.9 13.6 116.7 65.7 52.1 6.5 10.1 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.4 14.0 13.7 129.2 73.0 53.2 1.6 6.3 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.5 11.0 13.0 119.9 66.9 51.7 3.2 7.6 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.7 11.7 9.4 123.1 72.5 53.8 3.3 6.0 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.7 9.3 14.9 115.6 65.4 52.1 2.9 6.6 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.7 12.7 10.9 136.7 72.9 55.4 2.7 6.6 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.1 9.5 19.0 118.3 66.9 52.8 3.4 5.3 9.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.1 10.0 14.1 133.2 69.2 55.1 3.4 8.1 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.8 11.7 9.5 119.1 69.2 52.9 3.4 5.9 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.4 11.7 11.6 133.2 71.1 55.6 0.9 5.8 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.9 14.3 13.7 122.4 67.8 53.1 4.2 8.0 14.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.3 13.0 14.9 135.2 70.3 57.0 3.9 6.4 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.3 8.4 13.0 118.4 68.7 50.5 1.0 4.9 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.0 12.4 13.4 133.7 69.9 56.9 2.8 6.6 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.0 11.5 13.4 127.0 70.6 52.8 1.2 4.9 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.7 17.2 15.7 114.1 65.3 52.1 5.7 12.1 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.1 10.1 11.2 139.9 73.9 56.2 2.1 4.3 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------