***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 0.8 2.9 9.3 81.0 52.5 41.1 0.4 1.7 5.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.6 4.0 7.9 82.9 54.1 42.4 1.1 3.5 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.1 3.9 9.3 81.8 51.0 41.3 1.6 3.8 5.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.0 8.0 9.6 76.8 51.8 40.9 5.0 7.4 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.6 9.8 10.3 79.0 49.5 42.5 5.1 9.8 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.7 5.4 9.1 74.4 49.6 41.6 2.5 5.5 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.7 3.6 7.4 80.6 53.5 42.4 1.4 3.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.2 13.9 11.1 82.6 51.1 43.9 6.3 13.6 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.1 4.9 11.1 80.6 49.1 43.2 3.9 5.0 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.1 6.9 11.7 83.7 51.6 44.0 3.9 6.6 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.7 5.8 10.0 80.3 49.3 42.6 2.6 5.9 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.1 4.4 9.7 79.9 50.6 43.0 1.4 4.4 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.6 7.3 10.1 78.1 49.2 42.7 2.5 7.4 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 2.6 5.9 12.8 90.5 57.3 46.3 4.0 5.3 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 0.7 3.0 9.0 79.4 56.5 40.1 0.5 1.9 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.4 6.7 9.6 78.2 48.8 42.4 1.0 7.1 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.2 4.5 7.5 84.8 57.0 44.5 1.0 2.4 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 3.3 7.4 13.2 90.0 54.2 46.6 3.8 6.3 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 1.1 4.3 8.3 83.2 52.9 41.7 0.6 2.5 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.3 6.5 15.7 86.5 50.9 46.1 2.9 6.4 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 2.3 5.2 10.4 81.4 49.1 42.5 3.7 5.2 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.4 3.5 8.3 87.4 54.5 43.6 0.6 2.5 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 0.9 2.7 9.3 84.3 53.9 42.4 0.9 2.2 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.6 8.4 11.8 88.3 54.2 45.4 3.8 7.4 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.7 6.4 10.8 81.1 51.1 43.0 1.4 6.3 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.7 6.2 9.5 79.0 51.0 42.6 2.9 5.6 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.6 3.8 10.0 81.8 52.4 42.5 2.0 3.7 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 1.6 4.5 9.0 77.8 53.0 40.4 0.5 3.9 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 6.1 12.8 14.4 91.7 54.2 47.4 6.9 12.0 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.4 2.9 8.2 81.4 52.3 41.2 1.0 2.7 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------