***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.01.2018.-28.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.4 9.2 88.9 54.4 47.3 4.6 7.7 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.1 9.0 8.8 101.3 60.2 49.1 2.6 4.9 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.4 10.9 9.8 93.5 58.2 47.7 3.6 8.1 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.2 8.8 8.8 72.2 51.4 41.1 2.1 8.8 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.4 10.4 12.3 101.4 61.0 53.4 3.5 7.5 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.5 8.8 11.5 102.3 61.1 53.4 4.4 6.5 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.5 8.4 97.6 58.2 48.3 1.2 5.6 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.5 11.6 12.4 92.7 56.4 50.3 4.0 11.1 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.2 11.8 95.8 59.8 51.2 3.4 7.1 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.4 7.8 12.6 97.2 59.2 51.9 4.4 7.5 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 8.3 9.2 12.7 103.0 60.9 54.5 3.4 6.8 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.1 5.8 11.1 89.5 55.4 49.6 2.9 4.8 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 9.1 9.5 13.7 109.8 62.9 56.5 4.8 7.4 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.7 16.6 14.1 106.5 62.0 50.8 7.3 12.4 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.0 5.8 7.4 66.2 53.1 40.8 0.9 4.1 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.9 7.6 12.2 102.2 61.0 54.1 2.6 4.8 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.9 8.2 8.1 96.9 57.8 49.5 1.4 4.7 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.2 8.9 14.3 103.9 63.3 53.4 4.0 7.1 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.7 9.4 102.7 61.2 48.8 2.8 7.8 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 11.6 12.2 18.3 105.6 61.3 54.6 2.3 9.6 13.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.1 10.8 92.0 57.7 48.4 3.8 7.4 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.2 9.2 8.8 101.7 60.0 50.2 3.2 6.7 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.7 10.8 107.1 62.3 50.5 3.9 6.8 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.3 14.4 13.0 102.5 62.3 51.7 5.8 11.2 15.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.9 11.6 96.1 57.4 50.6 4.9 7.4 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.0 6.8 11.1 86.5 54.4 47.7 3.1 6.5 9.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.1 7.6 10.1 92.8 55.0 49.0 2.7 6.1 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.2 8.9 78.0 55.9 45.1 1.1 4.5 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.4 20.1 15.8 104.2 62.7 53.1 6.1 12.2 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.2 8.7 8.8 97.4 59.4 48.3 2.2 6.9 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------